• Investment World
• eWorld
• Catalyst
• Mentor
• Life
• Canvas
• Praxis
• Urban Pulse
• Brand Quest

G. Parthasarathy

The second Gulf War has started. No doubt, given its huge firepower and technological superiority, the US will prevail, but the only question is at what human cost? G. Parthasarathy looks at the latest developments and the post-war scenario f or and in Iraq.

THE sun had not yet risen on March 18 in Baghdad when air raid sirens woke up the city's population as American F-117 Stealth bombers and warships in the Persian Gulf directed over 40 cruise missiles at what were said to be targets where the CIA had scented the presence of the Iraqi "leadership". Strangely, the timing of this initial salvo became very convenient for the US President, Mr George Bush, to announce at prime time over television and radio that the attacks were "the opening stage of what will be a broad and concerted campaign". Mr Bush consciously played down expectations of an early and bloodless victory. He somberly asserted that the conflict "could be longer and more difficult than some predict".

There have clearly been miscalculations, errors and uncertainties about the duration and directions of the conflict against Iraq. The Pentagon had never doubted that a loyal ally like Turkey would take the unprecedented step of denying it port, transit and over flight facilities. With transit facilities and facilities for stationing troops denied by the Turkish Parliament, the US had to completely change its war plans virtually at the last minute.

The Pentagon had hoped to trap Iraqi forces in a two-pronged attack — from the north through Turkey and the Kurdish-controlled areas of Iraq, and from Kuwait in the south. This plan, which would have resulted in an early collapse of Iraqi resistance, had to be replaced by one involving a concerted attack from Kuwait alone. There is little doubt that given its huge firepower and technological superiority, the American attack will prevail, sooner rather than later. The only question that remains is at what human cost the US will achieve its victory. It will hardly be in a position to credibly claim victory if hundreds or thousands of innocent Iraqis perish during the conflict, especially if Qatar's Al Jazeera TV network carries visual images of the innocents killed to homes across the world.

The Iraq Liberation Act, passed by the US Congress, came into effect on October 31, 1998. The Act proclaimed that US policy would be to "support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq". The Act also authorised the US President to provide military, broadcast and humanitarian assistance to designated Iraqi opposition groups for the overthrow of Mr Saddam Hussein and allocated $97 million for this purpose. This was, of course, in addition to the vast sums allocated to the CIA to achieve the same end. Having failed to achieve its objectives through diplomatic and military means, the US has now resorted to military force claiming that it would liberate the people of Iraq from the tyranny of Mr Saddam Hussein.

In pursuing this objective the American general Tommy Franks would do well to remember what transpired when the British ended the Ottoman rule in Baghdad in 1917. The British forces made up primarily of Indian soldiers suffered horrendous casualties to "liberate" Baghdad from the Ottomans. Its commander, Lt Gen Stanley Maude, proclaimed to the people of Baghdad: "We come into your cities and lands not as conquerors and enemies but as liberators." Within a few years the British were under assault from forces opposed to foreign rule.

The Americans have endeavoured to put together a number of opposition groups to fill the political vacuum once Mr Saddam Hussein is overthrown. These range from the mainstream Iraqi National Congress and Kurdish groups such as the Kurdish Democratic Party, on the one hand, to the pro-Iranian Shia-dominated Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, on the other. The responsibility of reconciling differences between these groups has been entrusted to American diplomat Zalmay Khalizad, who played a similar role in Afghanistan. But the basic differences between the ruling Iraqi Sunnis (who are a minority) on the one hand and the majority Shias and ethnic Kurds on the other are too deep to be papered over.

To add to these complications are the ambitions of Turkey and Iran that are also not easy to reconcile. Saudi Arabia is also not going to feel comfortable if the Shias in Southern Iraq are given their democratic rights and become more assertive about the plight of their Shia brethren in the Wahabi kingdom.

While there can be many doubts about the political scenario after the Americans prevail over Mr Saddam Hussein, there can be no doubt that the the US will seize the opportunity to re-establish its presence in the oil and gas sectors in Iraq. After the Iraqi military ruler Gen Abdel Karim Kassem was overthrown in a CIA-backed coup in 1963, American companies such as Mobil and Bechtel were enthusiastically welcomed in Iraq. It has already been indicated in Washington that the contracts for post-war reconstruction works, amounting to around $900 million, will be allocated exclusively to American corporations including Haliburton, that earlier employed the Vice-President, Mr Dick Cheney.

There is little doubt that existing arrangements that French companies like Total have concluded in Iraq with the Saddam Hussein dispensation will be annulled, given the depth of American anger against France. Russian oil companies that have huge contracts in Iraq would also find it very difficult to deal with any new dispensation. The way seems open for bright future, at least in the short term, for American and British corporations.

India has rightly taken a discreet and low-key posture on the developments on Iraq. We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes the V. P. Singh Government made in 1990 by publicly embracing Mr Saddam Hussein, who would not exactly win a popularity contest in any neighbouring Arab state or even within his own country.

Our interests lie in the welfare of the three and a half million Indians living in Iraq's neighbouring Arab states. We also can have a role to play in the reconstruction of post-war Iraq if we play our cards well. Finally, we need to remember that ONGC Videsh signed a contract in November 2000 to explore and develop Block 8 in the western deserts of Iraq that border Saudi Arabia on one side and Kuwait on the other.

This field is estimated to contain two billion barrels of oil with an annual oil production of 35 million barrels. ONGC Videsh is the sole operator of this project.

(The author is former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication

Stories in this Section
IA hikes fares by 15 pc

Copyright © 2003, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line