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Wednesday, May 28, 2003

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Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS extended their pressure during the initial hours of Tuesday's trading. Thereafter, bears made a strong comeback and gained control of the day's proceedings.

Bulls managed to gain marginally from the day's trading. The market sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, it is likely to turn bullish.

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Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the near month May contract gained three points. Later on, bears made a strong comeback and recouped their early losses.

The May month contract moved within a band of 18 points. It closed with a loss of 14 points with respect to Monday's close.

The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels. For Wednesday, the uptrend in the May contract is likely to be under threat. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the May contract are placed closer to its current level.

Bear domination on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in the May contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top 10 tradable list. Infosys moved to the top slot and State Bank of India (SBI) moved to the fourth position. The top three traded counters in this segment were Satyam Computer, Infosys and SBI.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Hindustan Petro, Reliance Industries and Tata Engineering. On the other hand, the downtrend in Digital is likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, Satyam Computer and Tata Engineering.

A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Digital. The best among the above is likely to be Satyam Computer. Its bearish trigger level is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash segment: The composition of the top 10 tradable list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had a total revamp. Infosys moved to the top position and Oriental Bank moved to the fifth position followed by Bank of Baroda and Mastek. The downtrend in NIIT is likely to be terminated at 124.30.

For Wednesday, the prevailing uptrend counters and the downtrend in Digital are likely to be under threat. Traders are left with limited opportunities for Wednesday's trading. Bears are likely to have opportunity in Infosys and Satyam Computer.

A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Digital. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Satyam Computer. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its sell level is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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