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CHENNAI, March 10

THE country's foodgrain production is likely to be higher this crop year at 205 million tonnes (mt), a three per cent rise over last year's production. But it will still miss the targeted 218 million tonnes. It will also be lower than the record 212 mt during 1999-2000.

None of the foodgrains— be it wheat, rice or coarse cereals— is seen touching the targeted output. Also, foodgrains production will be nowhere near the 234 mt target set for the Ninth Plan period, according to indications available from various trade sources.

Wheat production this year is expected to be around 72 mt, up from last year's 68.46 mt, thanks to rains in January and February besides a cooler climate in the growing areas, according to the US Department of Agriculture. While the outlook is good for Uttar Pradesh, production in Haryana and Punjab is set to equal or exceed that of last year. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the crop was hit by drought last year, were also set to produce a good crop.

After a record prodution of 76.4 mt during 1999-2000, wheat production dipped last year to 68.46.

Rice production was also expected to recover this year to 89 mt against 86.30 mt last year. It is still expected to be lower than the record 89.48 mt produced furing 1999-2000. While kharif output is seen making 77 mt of this, rabi is seen contributing the rest. Though output in Punjab is seen lower due to diversion of the area under rice to cotton, it was expected to touch record level in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Most of the rice-growing States, barring Andhra Pradesh, could witness a good output.

As a result of the good production, the buffer stock level of wheat during the end of the fiscal is seen at around 27 mt, about seven times more than mandated by the Government. In view of the attractive statutory minimum price for wheat, procurement is also seen at record level this year.

On the other hand, the buffer stock of rice is expected to be around 30 mt, nearly five times than what the Government has mandated.

Wheat exports are expected to touch 3 mt despite the setback of Iraq rejecting three consignments and Pakistan denying permission for transit of consignments to Afghanistan. Rice exports are seen hovering around 2 mt this year, mainly on purchases by African nations.

Production of coarse grains could be 30.5 mt, the same as last year but it will also be lower than the targeted 33 mt. Pulses output may recover to 13.5 mt from 11.06 last year but it will also be less that the set target of 15 mt.

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