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Vipin V. Nair

When we made the forecast of 30 per cent growth, we had pegged Rs 50 to a dollar," Mr Karnik said. Currently, the rupee hovers around 47.66 against the dollar.

NEW DELHI, March 16

THE annual growth of software and service exports is likely to fall short of projections by two-three percentage points in 2002-03 from the earlier predicted 30 per cent due to the appreciation of rupee against the US dollar, the National Association of Software and Service Companies (Nasscom) has said.

"Latest figures indicate that we would have a drop of 2-3 percentage points in our growth this year," said Mr Kiran Karnik, President of Nasscom. "When we made the forecast of 30 per cent growth, we had pegged Rs 50 to a dollar," he said. Currently, the rupee hovers around 47.66 against the dollar.

This means that software exports would clock a growth of 27-28 per cent in the current fiscal over the previous year. Figures available from the past three quarters also suggested this, Mr Karnik said.

During 2001-02, software and service exports from India stood at Rs 36,500 crore, growing at 29 per cent over the previous year. Nasscom had projected a 30 per cent growth in 2002-03 for the industry.

"Things look generally good and there are no serious concerns. We will do a projection in a few weeks from now for the next fiscal," Mr Karnik said.

He said the even if the proposed Bill by a Senator in New Jersey, which seeks to restrict outsourcing Government work, were to get enacted, the Indian software industry would have nothing to worry about.

"It is not all serious. Total outsourcing from the US Government is only around one per cent of our exports. So there is no need to worry about this Bill," Mr Karnik said.

Issues such as Germany's decision to stop green cards to Indian software professionals and move by the US to lower the number of H1B visas would not affect the industry either, he added.

"The number of H1B visas had been raised drastically in the past. But then due to the economic slowdown, the demand has slumped. So the cap may be lowered this year," he said, adding that the US companies were anyway increasingly choosing to get more work offshore.

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