The Hindu Business Line : Sri Lanka: Of peace without war

BY ALL accounts, Sri Lanka is a good country to travel to these days. Colombo is a happening place with its famous parties, memories of bomb blasts and wars have receded, there is no SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) here yet, the seafood is fresh and delicious, and above all everybody is either reaping a peace dividend, or is waiting for one to reach them eventually.

With the Iraq war chasing us, 24 hours on various news channels and front-pages, this tiny island nation is at long last taking a breather from two decades of a bloody and violent strife between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

Several rounds of peace negotiations have been held during the last year and almost everybody you talk to in Colombo says that whether they like it or not, neither the Sri Lankan Government nor the LTTE can walk away from the negotiation table.

The recent incidents in the northern seas involving a vessel bringing in arms, the downing of a Chinese trawler and the gunning down of an odd "informant" in Colombo, are aberrations indeed. But either the peace process has such an inherent strength, or the politicians have no other option but to continue the dialogue because the battered Sri Lankan economy just cannot take another military engagement with the LTTE; the `aberrations' have not derailed the process, yet.

Of course, there is perennial speculation in Colombo that the Sri Lankan President, Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga, has given her long-time political rival and Prime Minister, Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe, enough of a grace period and is impatient to pull the rug from under his feet.

She has the executive powers to dismiss his government with a fragile majority in Parliament. On the political front, it would be legitimate for any Opposition party to topple the government by "persuading" the fence-sitters to cross over.

But some political analysts in Sri Lanka do not think that Ms Kumaratunga will disturb the Wickrmesinghe Government at such a crucial time. If she does so, jeopardising the peace process, she would be committing political hara kiri, they point out. On the contrary, there is a growing sense within her that the peace negotiation is proceeding rather well, and she is getting left out of the inner circle.

Mr Jehan Perera, Director (Research and Media) of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, says that the hitherto smooth passage of the peace negotiation actually held out a "window of opportunity" to Ms Kumaratunga. "In the last one week, she has been making positive statements on the peace process. She told the diplomatic community in Colombo and the donor community, as well as the people, that she is not against the peace process, as is being made out in some quarters. The LTTE has also, in a way, reciprocated by saying the "even if she comes to power, they will continue in the process."

Mr Perera does not agree that this would be good enough a reason to topple the government. "On the contrary, her fear is that she is going to be left out. She realises, even though she is trying to form an alliance with the JVP, that despite any strong political alliance it would be counterproductive to dissolve the Parliament because the public mood is for peace."

Prof Jayadeva Uyangoda, Head of the department of Political Sciences at the Colombo University, agrees that the public mood in the south is overwhelmingly in support of peace. That would be a major reason for keeping both the Government and the LTTE at the negotiating table and the ceasefire going.

The next big event as far as Sri Lanka's peace process is concerned, is the donors' consortium in Tokyo scheduled in June. Japan, the EU and the Untied States have promised major support for rebuilding the north and the east. In fact, there is a feeling in Colombo that the Sri Lankan Government has not taken a critical stand against the war on Iraq for fear of putting off the Americans, expected to chip in big.

But all the players who matter in the peace process are acutely aware that the donors, which will pump in hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, will keep a watchful eye on the peace process. It is here, points out Mr. Perera, that political unity will be extremely crucial.

"It would be to the President's benefit to be seen hugely in favour of the peace process at the donor meet. She finds that as time goes on and a lot of donor support is pledged in the foreseeable future, the Government is going to be strengthened rather than weakened. She feels that while all this happens, she will get edged out. Also, she is coming to the end of her term. She is worried about all this and hence is making very positive statements which the government has to reciprocate."

Herein lies the rub. At this point, it will be crucial for the Prime Minister to set aside old political rivalries and respond to the overtures being made by Ms Kumartunga for some space in the peace process, where she is hitherto unrepresented. She has already asked for her representative to be included, and "what I understand from top Presidential officials is that she doesn't need it to be a People's Alliance person. It can be an official from her Secretariat. She wants a presence. Her point is, and rightly so, that she cannot be presented with a fait accompli. She must be in the process and be seen to have contributed to it," adds Mr Perera.

The need of the moment is for the Wickrenesinghe Government to organise an all-party conference which can hammer out some kind of a consensus on moving towards a negotiated political settlement to the long-raging political conflict. This would strengthen the feeling at the donor conference that not only all the ethnic groups, but also the political parties are sincere, serious and committed to peace.

Another advantage for the Prime Minister on the political horizon, despite the thin majority the United National Front Government enjoys in Parliament, is his business background. Any breakdown in the peace process and move towards a military engagement with the Tigers will shatter the fragile economy.

It is economic revival that the people want. They are fed up of inflation and the high prices of essential commodities. There is a widespread feeling in Colombo that a government led by a business leader, such as Mr Wickremesinghe, is much more likely to get support from the business community, for an ailing economy, than one led by the PA-JVP combine even if the latter manages to come to power. For the time being, it is felt, economics and not politics, will call the shots.

At the moment there is much fanfare in the capital on the new economic document presented by the Government called "Regaining Sri Lanka", which spells out the Prime Minister's vision for putting the economy back on the rails. But some economists, who are very positive about the manner in which the government is handling the peace process, feel they have every right to critique the govenrment's "neo-liberal economic policies which are being dictated by international financial institutions such as the World Band and IMF."

One such voice is that of Prof W. D. Lakshman, former Vice-Chancellor of Colombo University and Professor of Economics.

"Hitherto we had something called the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, under World Bank guidelines, which was being prepared from 2000 onwards. It was presented in June 2002. But suddenly the government has come out with a document called `Regaining Sri Lanka' which is supposed to have the Prime Minister's backing. This is an elitist document where things like poverty and development are not even raised or discussed. And this is causing a lot of concern to many of us," he told Business Line.

Under the "neo-liberal" policies, it is feared, sectors of the economy, such as agriculture and export oriented industries, which need protection and some form of subsidy or incentives, will be given the go by.

This would be dangerous, points out Prof Lakshman, as it would be to usher in sweeping labour reforms "where the hire and fire policy" becomes the norm.

At the other end of the spectrum and in the Tiger land, what is causing great concern is human rights violations and the continuing recruitment of child soldiers by the LTTE. Untiringly, the University Teachers for Human Rights (Jaffna), periodically comes out with documented accounts of gross human rights violations by the LTTE.

Its latest report, dated March 18, notes that "for all the celebrations" on the peace process, "conditions on the ground (in the north and east) are not encouraging. The LTTE's conduct shows no significant improvement in democratic and human rights, or inter-communal relations in the north-east. And the LTTE's forays into economics have been disastrous."

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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