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Tumultuous times ahead in Bihar

Rasheeda Bhagat

ONCE again it is chaos in Bihar. There seems to be no respite for this backward State which continues to spring electoral and post-electoral surprises on the political front. In the run-up to the Assembly elections, just when it appeared certain that the RJD chief, Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, was in trouble and that his 10-year tenure in power would very likely end, he struck back.

But Mr. Laloo Yadav's upset has become a thorn in the side of those who expected to see a smooth transition of power from the RJD to the National Democratic Alliance. Amid clucking of tongues and shaking of heads, the Samata Party leader, Mr. Nitish Kuma r, readies to prove his majority on the floor of the Assembly.

The Bihar Governor, Mr. Vinod Pande, has come under fire for the undue haste with which he invited the NDA to form the government on March 3, even as Mr. Laloo Yadav was mustering MLAs, bolstered by the support of 23 Congress(I) MLAs, to stake a claim. B uying legislators from various parties is so accepted in India that in Bihar everyone without exception _ from political pundits to the man on the street _ is talking about going rate for an MLA. But the Governor swore in Mt. Nitish Kumar and gave him 10 days to prove his majority on the floor of the House.

An aggrieved Mr. Laloo Yadav, called for a protest bandh, which got out-of-hand, and the RJD leader was arrested. The violence in the aftermath of the Governor's decision is a certain pointer that Mr. Laloo Yadav himself is worried about Mr. Nitish Kumar managing to prove his majority in the Assembly.

If the NDA manages to swing it, it would be only through the purchase of MLAs _ Independents or by splitting the Congress(I). As many as 11 Congress(I) MLAs are from Jharkhand and they are bitter that Mr. Laloo Yadav backtracked on the Jharkhand issue.

And within his own party, Mr. Laloo Yadav has detractors who resent the foisting of an obvious political novice, Ms. Rabri Devi, as their leader. Just before the elections, the talk in Patna was that if the NDA gets a simple majority but denies Mr. Nitis h Kumar the chief ministership, he would split the Samata Party and cross over to Mr. Laloo Yadav's camp, and settle for a deputy chief ministership. Ironically, for Mr. Laloo Yadav, the shoe is now on the other foot, and Mr. Nitish Kumar is sure to be f ishing in troubled waters.

But a senior IAS officer in Patna doubts if the NDA would be able to swing it. ``Splitting the Congress(I) will not be that easy as the High Command is rushing senior leaders to Patna in a bid to keep the flock together. It will be bad enough if an NDA g overnment comes to power without getting support from a splinter of the Congress(I), because the party will be blamed for not faxing its letter of support to the RJD much earlier. But its already dented image will take a further beating if it is not able to keep its MLAs together,'' he says.

He presents an interesting angle when he says that the Governor, far from being a BJP man, is considered more ``a Congress(I) person. The grapevine here has it that the Congress(I) itself might have asked Mr. Pande to invite the NDA, saying `humko embarr assment se bachao' (please save us from embarrassment''.

The `embarrassment' of course refers to the Congress(I) withdrawing support to the Rabri government in the final stages, having no alliance or seat adjustment with the RJD during the elections, and describing the RJD rule during electioneering as both ju ngle raj and corrupt. Having done all this, it would have ``really looked silly to rush in to support the RJD and, hence, the delay in declaring its support for the RJD,'' concludes the officer.

But while it is a choice between the devil and the deep sea for the Congress(I) _ either way it will be damned, Dr. Shaibal Gupta, a founder-member of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute, spelt out what the last week's events could mean for the volatile political system in the State.

``Though I am no constitutional expert who can comment on the propriety of the Governor's move in inviting the NDA to form the government, I do feel that he could have used more political sagacity in deciding who should get the first chance. What is most unfortunate about his hurried decision is that it is bound to cause further caste conflagration in Bihar.''

Prof. Gupta feels that had the Governor taken some more time to decide on the formation of the government and who should be called first, the people would have felt that he had acted impartially and after exploring all options.

``Had he taken some more time to decide and had given both the groups a chance, then, Mr. Laloo Yadav could not have complained. But the manner in which the Governor hurriedly invited Mr. Nitish Kumar has made the other section feel deprived and caste an d related passions will only heighten in the coming weeks.''

Declining to comment on the possible outcome and the contours of the next government, he added, ``I would leave that forecast for political soothsayers. But as a social soothsayer, I can say that the Governor's haste has created a lot of social tremors i n Bihar which is bound to face stormier times in the coming days.''

While the Assembly and the State as a whole are sure to see tumultuous times in the next few weeks, the surprise sprung by Mr. Laloo Yadav needs a closer look. During the electioneering, this correspondent perceived a fading of his charisma and of the pe ople becoming tired of his antics and buffoonery.

Caught up in the fodder scam and other corruption charges, and forced to vacate the Chief Minister's seat, in the last two years, Mr. Laloo Yadav's immediate priority has been to save his own skin; the next, to keep the RJD Government going, by fair mean s or foul. With such preoccupation, provision of governance, leave alone good governance, was not on his agenda at all.

The sorry state of the infrastructure, the absence of any industrial development, the near-total breakdown of law and order, and the increasing violence have made the Bihar voter despondent and desperate. The widespread perception was that the BJP-led ND A would emerge a big winner.

But two things spoilt the party for the NDA and, ironically, they were of its own making: Bitter infighting among its ranks and intra-party bickering which resulted in a record number of rebel candidates entering the fray.

The second, and more important, was the opening of the Pandora's box by the Gujarat Government. Its highly publicised order lifting the ban on its employees participating in the activities of the RSS hardly went well with the Muslim voters in Bihar. Whil e Mr. Laloo Yadav's 10-year rule had done little to ameliorate their lot, it had shielded them from communal violence. Seeing in the Gujarat Government order the RSS wolf at their door, and the threat of suppression and oppression under a BJP rule, a fai r percentage of Bihar's Muslims (who are about 16 per cent of the population), seem to have voted for the RJD.

Add to this fear the totally unnecessary pronouncements by the BJP chief minister of neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, Mr. R. P. Gupta, that a Ram mandir would be constructed in Ayodhya at any cost and that madrasas and other such religious institutions would be put under scrutiny, and with friends like Mr. Keshubhai Patel and Mr. R. P. Gupta, did the NDA need any enemies in Bihar?

If Mr. Nitish Kumar's horse-trading abilities are found wanting and if Mr. Laloo Yadav fails to form a government (if invited to do so, that is), the political impasse in Bihar can only end with President's rule. But, then, there are two equally forceful voices for and against President's rule in Bihar.

While the Patna University's Sociology Professor at the Magadh Mahila College, Ms. Renu Ranjan, feels that President's rule for two years would do Bihar immense good, the IAS officer strongly disagrees: ``President's rule is never good anywhere because n o decisions are taken. All important decisions are left to a popular government'' the officer he says, adding that this is a luxury that Bihar can ill afford.