Churn in Bay too feeble to give peninsula any major rain gains

Three days after cyclone ‘Vardah’ made an eventful landfall, the South Peninsula finds itself asking for more rainfall to bridge the huge deficit.

With only 15 days more left in the North-East monsoon season, there is not much to expect either, though models point to a feeble churn in the Gulf of Siam (Thailand), which lies next to the Bay of Bengal.

The India Met Department (IMD) too located an upper air cyclonic circulation in the area but there is no guarantee it would produce a low-pressure area, as was the case with ‘Vardah.’

Global models have kept up a watch and in fact go on to predict that the churn in the Gulf of Siam would get transmitted into the Andaman Sea and the adjoining Bay of Bengal over the next two days.

The Canadian Meteorological Centre is the most optimistic pointing to a well-endowed circulation travelling the distance from the Andaman Sea to Sri Lanka, adjoining south Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

It would set off on its journey on Saturday, ending it in the Arabian Sea off Kerala by December 21 (Wednesday next).

The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast Model sees the circulation leaving the Andamans region by Saturday and reaching the south-west Bay off Sri Lanka and adjoining south Tamil Nadu by Monday, up to which date forecasts were available.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency is of the view that the circulation might leave the Andamans region on Sunday and head straight to central Sri Lanka, where it will cross the coast.

The US Navy Global Environmental Model depicts a scenario in which the circulation reaches the South-West Bay off Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu by Sunday.

The IMD has forecast an off-and-on wet spell along the Tamil Nadu coast and parts of the interior from Thursday but does not see major gains accruing to the rain-deficit state and the Peninsula.

The rain deficit for the season is 60 per cent for the Peninsula as of Wednesday, with Karnataka being the worst hit.

The State’s two sub-divisions posted 77 per cent (North Interior Karnataka) and 70 per cent (South Interior Karnataka).

The next poor performer is Andhra Pradesh, wherein Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema ended up with a 66 per cent deficit each.

Adjoining Telangana fared comparatively better, with a deficit of 40 per cent.

Lakshadweep (64 per cent); Coastal Karnataka (63 per cent); Kerala (62 per cent); and Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (61 per cent), in that order, made up the rear.