Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Sunday, May 11, 2003
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Sunday, May 11, 2003 |
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Investment World
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Stock Markets Markets - Commentary Positive trend in Elgi B. Krishnakumar
AFTER a rally in the first two days, the key market indices ruled weak in the remaining three days of the week. The subdued trend in old-economy heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and ITC affected market sentiment during the week. Sensex (2950): As anticipated last week, the index ruled firm and touched a high of 3003 on Tuesday. It, however, turned weak and closed at 2950 on Friday. The overall outlook for the Sensex continues to remain weak. A break below 2900 would have negative implications and could pave the way for the much-anticipated move towards the 2500-2600 range. As of now, booking profit or reducing exposures in index stocks would be the preferred course of action. The focus this week is on Elgi Equipment, Ucal Fuel and India Cements. The outlook for these stocks appears positive. Existing holders could remain invested while fresh buying may also be considered by investors willing to take delivery. Elgi Equipment (Rs 24): The share price of the company could seek the Rs 29-30 level in the near term. A break above Rs 25 would confirm the positive outlook. However, a drop below Rs 22 would have negative implications. Existing holders could remain invested while a move past Rs 25 could be used to take long positions with a close stop loss in place. Ucal Fuel (Rs 212.3): The long-term outlook for the scrip appears positive. A move towards Rs 250 levels appears to be on the cards. Existing holders could remain invested while a move past Rs 217 could be used to take long positions. The only caveat is that a drop below Rs 193 would blunt the positive outlook. India Cements (Rs 15.25): A move past Rs 16 would have positive implications and a further move to Rs 19-20 could materialise thereafter. On the other hand, a drop below Rs 14 would blunt the positive outlook. Recommendation follow-up HDFC Bank (Rs 245.75): The scrip failed to move past the bullish trigger price of Rs 260, mentioned last week. It, however, appears to be on the verge of breaching the short-term bearish trigger level of Rs 240. The scrip could head towards the Rs 215-220 area. This, however, has not negated the overall bullish outlook for HDFC Bank scrip. The long-term outlook continues to remain positive and a move towards Rs 300 is still on the cards. Existing investors could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 243. Fresh buying may be considered either on a move past Rs 260 or on a decline to the Rs 215-220 area. LIC Housing Finance (Rs 81.9): After touching a high of Rs 85.35 on Wednesday, the scrip turned weak thereafter. Previous week's view of a rise to the Rs 90 mark continues to remain valid. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 75. Fresh buying may also be considered with a stop loss at Rs 75.
(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)
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