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Sunday, May 11, 2003

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Weak outlook for key pivotals

B. Krishnakumar

NIFTY (937.85): In line with expectations, the index ruled firm and managed to move to the target zone of 955-960, mentioned last week. After touching a high of 956.65 on Wednesday, the index turned weak.

The near-term outlook for the Nifty appears weak. A drop below 919 would confirm the bearish outlook. However, a move past 957 would have positive implications and could pave the way for a rally to the 960-970 range. Holders of short positions may have a stop loss at 952. A move above 957 could be used to take long positions.

ITC (Rs 663.95): After touching a high of Rs 688.4, the scrip turned weak. The overall outlook continues to remain positive. A move towards the Rs 725-750 range is still on the cards. However, in the near term, the scrip could probe the Rs 650-655 range. Existing holders could remain invested while fresh buying may be considered on an evidence of support around the Rs 650-655 band. A move past Rs 710 could be used to book profit.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 137.9): The scrip was confined to a narrow band last week. The overall outlook continues to remain weak. The often-emphasized view of a drop to the Rs 115-120 range is still valid. A drop below Rs 135 would have negative implications. Existing holders could reduce exposures while price upmoves could be used to take short positions. A drop below Rs 135 could be used to enhance short positions in the counter.

Infosys Technologies (Rs 2,926.2): As expected, the scrip ruled firm and touched a high of Rs 3,070 and turned weak thereafter. The overall outlook for the scrip continues to remain weak with a test of the Rs 1800-2000 range being a distinct possibility. However, in the near term, a move towards Rs 3,400-3,500 could materialise if the share price moves past Rs 3,100. Existing holders could look for opportunities to reduce exposures while a move below Rs 2,700 could be used to take short positions.

Satyam Computers (Rs 168.35): Similar to Infosys, the outlook for Satyam too does not appear all that positive. A drop below Rs 150 would have negative implications. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 160. Price upmoves could be used to reduce exposures. Short position may be considered on a drop below Rs 150.

Query Corner

Business Line will feature on this page of its Sunday edition a new question and answer section on technical outlook for stocks and key market indices. Readers are invited to send in their queries by e-mail to: techtrail@thehindu.co.in or bkumar@thehindu.co.in . Queries can also be mailed to Tech Trail, The Hindu Business Line, Kasturi Buildings, 859/860 Anna Salai, Chennai 600 002.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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