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Satellite pictures at 9.30 am showed thick clouds gathering in the seas just outside the Saurashtra & Kutch region and just to the east of Ahmedabad in Gujarat. Similar cloud formation is also seen over the surrounding areas of Indore in Madhya Pradesh; Nagpur in Maharashtra; and the contiguous areas of New Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana and Punjab.
DEFICIT CUT DOWN
The escalation of rain over the past few days has brought down the deficit over Saurashtra and Kutch by as much as half to 35 per cent as of yesterday. The eastern parts of the country, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in North-West India are still in deficit, forming a peculiar splash of 'red' on the rain distribution map along the plains adjoining the Himalayas.
The prevailing well-marked low-pressure area located this morning over North Interior Odisha is expected to remain productive and push rains into Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh from today.
The India Met Department (IMD) has said the West Coast, adjoining Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Central and North-West India would continue to receive heavy precipitation today. It forecast heavy to very heavy rain at a few places, with extremely heavy falls over Konkan and Goa, eastern parts of Gujarat and Saurashtra.
It will be heavy to very heavy rain over East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha; heavy to very heavy rain over East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It will be heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathwada, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and interior Karnataka.
SMART RECOVERY
The rain deficit for the country as a whole thus far during the season (June 1 to July 16), which covers the first one-and-a-half months of the monsoon, has been brought down to four per cent.
This represents a smart recovery in the monsoon performance during the first week of July, normally the rainiest of the four monsoon months, which had posted a deficit of 10 per cent.
The prevailing well-marked 'low' and the successor forecast to brew over the North Bay of Bengal over the next couple of days should help further augment the overall situation.
The IMD has predicted that the rainfall would be 101 per cent of the long-period average during July, which should make for a normal performance during the month.
The rain-deficit areas as of now are in Lakshadweep, Saurashtra & Kutch, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, and the North-Eastern states.
There are minor but manageable deficits in East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakahand, and Rayalaseema in the South.
The brewing, well-endowed successor 'low' should help qualitatively improve the situation over East and North-East India, particularly over Central India, over the next five to 10 days.
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