The North-East monsoon may have delayed its onset beyond the normal October 15-20 window, but that has not prevented the main catchment states from receiving their usual quota of rains.

Kerala (+40 per cent), Lakshadweep (+36 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (+21 per cent) have had surplus showers while South Interior (+8 per cent) and Coastal Karnataka (+7 per cent) recorded normal showers.

For Lakshadweep, this is significant coming as it does after a very poor South-West monsoon. But Rayalaseema (-52 per cent) has continued its poor record into this season as well.

North Interior Karnataka (-53 per cent) and Coastal Andhra Pradesh (-65 per cent) too presented a deficient to scanty rainfall picture after very severe Cyclone Titli disrupted the flow pattern.

India Met Department (IMD) now estimates that the flows may soon resume across the Bay of Bengal and North-East monsoon rains may commence over the South Peninsula by Friday.

MJO wave expected

Arrival of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over the Indian Ocean is perfectly timed for the event, ensuring sustained supply of clouds and associated rainfall. The wave periodically travels from West to East across Africa and the Indian Ocean before crossing over into the Maritime Continent and the Pacific in due course.

The ‘wet phase’ of the MJO has overseen the commencement of the monsoons and conversion of low-pressure areas into depression and even cyclones. The ‘dry phase’ does exactly the opposite.

Global models, including the Australian Bureau of of Meteorology, are of the view that the MJO wave would start passing over the Indian Ocean two to three days from now. The North-East monsoon will likely get triggered in the process.

Models are of the view that the wave would stay anchored over the Indian peninsular tip and adjoining the Bay until November 10 or so.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction seen rains lashing South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, adjoining Tamil Nadu and the Kerala and Karnataka coasts from October 29 to November 6. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts agrees, saying the rains are likely to be heavier over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and South Kerala over the next 10-day-period.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology said this morning that the low-pressure area over North Andaman Sea and adjoining Myanmar has started crossing its deltaic region. It expected the ‘low’ weaken and start travelling in a north-north-west direction, which could take it towards Bangladesh or the adjoining North Bay without much consequence for the Indian coast.

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