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The strong pressure system in the South Indian Ocean, tagged '96S', mainly responsible for sending remote swell waves into the Indian coast, has weakened a round this morning. Given this, the swell waves hitting the West Coast could lose some of their fizz from today, even as those bound for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and the East Coast of India might persist.
MOVING EAST
This is because '96S' is moving in an eastward track, even as part of the flows coming into it are being apportioned by a counterpart system '93S' off the coast of Madagascar. In fact, in the process, the latter has been upgraded to a named storm, 'Fakir.' The latter has been gaining strength at the expense of '96S' in what is a potential relief to far-off India's West coast.
What the depression has also managed to do is to disrupt the easterly flows South of the Equator towards the East Africa coast, which would gradually be converted as the monsoon flows into Kerala. This may be a temporary blip, but the South Indian Ocean should be free of 'road blocks' in the form of cyclonic circulations for the smooth development of monsoon flows into India.
PRE-MONSOON 'LOW'
Additionally, a crucial anti-cyclone has to evolve around Madagascar, where the named cyclone 'Fakir' is currently ruling the roost. The India Met Department (IMD) has already set up a watch for the first pre-monsoon low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, which would be more than a symbolic presence.
The 'low' is forecast to take shape by the weekend, and early forecasts suggest its calibrated growth into a system of cyclonic strength in the Bay and headed likely towards the southern Myanmar coast.
This more or less mirrors the forecast outlook of the ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, which plots a heavy rain regime along this track during this period.
Meanwhile, in North India, the arrival of a western disturbance could set up thunderstorms, hail, and gusty winds over the plains, and smother the building heat over the next few days.
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