All eyes are on the Gujarat polls

With economic and unemployment woes mounting, and bitter complaints against GST refusing to die down, all eyes are on the Gujarat Assembly election. How the BJP performs in its bastion and the karmabhoomi of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will send out strong signals about the 2019 Lok Sabha polls which, many political pundits predict, may be advanced.

The term of the Gujarat Assembly ends on January 22, 2018, but the Election Commission is yet to announce a date in the midst of expectations of Modi announcing a plethora of sops for the poll-bound State. Expected as a Diwali gift, these have not yet come; but Congress and other opposition leaders have criticised the EC for delaying the poll date announcement.

They charge this is to facilitate huge sops before the model code of conduct kicks in. Former finance minister P Chidambaram accused the EC of going on an “extended holiday”.

CEC AK Joti, in an interview to The Hindu , denied this charge and said the main reason for the delay was the ongoing flood relief and rehabilitation work. Were elections to be announced now, the staff engaged in work such as repair of roads and bridges would be diverted for election duty, he said.

Whatever the reason, the political scenario in Gujarat hardly appears hunky-dory for the BJP. It won the last election handsomely as it had Modi at the helm of government, and disenchantment with the Congress-led UPA at the Centre had already set in. The Hardik Patel agitation on behalf of the powerful Patidar community came much later, after Modi had become Prime Minister. In November 2016 came demonetisation and eight months down the line came GST.

It is well-known that Gujarat has the most vibrant business community. It is also known that like most Indian businessmen and traders, Gujaratis prefer dealing in cash. Having frequently shopped at Ahmedabad’s Dhalgarwad and Delhi’s Janpath, one knows only too well how the shopkeeper turned down your credit card or demanded 2-3 per cent commission for swiping it. The ill-planned and shoddily implemented demonetisation drive left the trading community across India gasping for breath, killing thousands of small enterprises and maiming others, resulting in huge job losses.

Gujarat too was affected badly and the State’s vibrant small and medium manufacturing enterprises faced many problems due to demonetisation and the transition to GST. In the Gujarati press, there are alarming reports of disenchantment with the BJP government, particularly due to unemployment. The GST, welcomed by only a minuscule percentage of businesses, and hated by end-users who have to shell out much more, is another sore point in Gujarat. But even earlier, there were rumblings about the way the Gujarat government was being run, and this resulted in the removal/resignation of Anandiben Patel as chief minister in August 2016.

Enough has been written and talked about how Gujarat’s farming sector benefited from getting Narmada water, for which the BJP has always taken credit. But Gujarat’s miraculous agri growth has reversed and agrarian distress is very much evident. Small wonder that a badly weakened Congress is getting back in the game and has offered farm loan waivers to Gujarat’s farmers if elected to power. Pushed on to the back foot, Chief Minister Vijay Roopani has promised an interest waiver.

Disenchanted and bitter young Gujarat citizens had trended “vikas gando thayo chhe” (development has gone mad) on the social media. A section of the dalit community is unhappy too; and atrocities such as lynching a dalit youth for “daring” to watch a garba performance; and the stabbing in quick succession of three Dalit youths in a village near Gandhinagar earlier this month for daring to sport moustaches, have enraged dalit youth. Add to this the earlier thrashing and lynching of dalits who clear up the skins of dead cattle, by cow vigilantes — clearly, dalit anger is mounting.

Surely the BJP is worried about the emergence of what the national media calls the “fiery Gujarat trio”: Hardik Patel, dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor. Quickly grabbing the opportunity, the Congress is wooing all three and has offered them tickets for the Gujarat polls. While Thakor met Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi and is coming on board, Patel has turned down the overture saying he is not interested in fighting elections. Mevani is noncommittal; flaying the BJP for considering “dalits as Hindus only as long as they vote BJP”, he has warned that if such attacks continue, “the anger of dalits will burn Gujarat”.

Small wonder that the twitter handle of Rahul Gandhi — @Office OfRG — is rocking. Tweets such as those asking Modi to give another hug to US president Donald Trump, who had tweeted in support of Pakistan, or advising the BJP not to interfere with the Tamil movie Mersal , are getting thousands of retweets.