Brexit blues

There were always two certainties about British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal: it would please nobody and it would be unworkable. Sure enough, five ministers resigned hours after the 585-page draft agreement was unveiled. By Friday evening it was clear that May’s own future was in doubt as hardline Brexiteers lobbied Conservative Party members to put together the 48 votes needed for a no-confidence vote. What’s still not clear is the position of Northern Ireland’s 10-member Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which had always insisted that the Brexit bill must not weaken links between the province and the UK mainland. May’s minority government depends on the DUP to stay in power. Combine the DUP refusing to back her with the dissidents in her own party and it looks unlikely May can cobble together the numbers to get the Brexit agreement through Parliament. For that she would need the support of the opposition Labour Party, which looks unlikely.

Soon after the Brexit negotiations began it quickly became clear that the thorniest issue was Britain’s fiercely loyal Northern Ireland province. Under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to the island, it was mandated there would be an open border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. But since the Irish Republic is an EU member, border controls of some sort suddenly became essential. To get around this, the draft agreement introduced a ‘backstop’ under which Northern Ireland would continue to follow EU rules on products and food. And since the DUP was fanatically opposed to border controls between Britain and Northern Ireland it was finally agreed that Britain would stay in a Customs Union with the EU — and it isn’t clear when this arrangement would end. This would prevent the UK from striking its own trade deals and infuriated the Brexiteers who have grandiose visions of turning Britain into a fast-moving island nation freed from EU shackles. Another red rag to the Brexiteer bulls was that the European Court of Justice would continue to adjudicate customs disputes.

The best-case scenario now is that May gets the draft bill through Parliament and then struggles with the complex nitty-gritty of the deal. Alternatively, the worst-case scenario is that Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, which could affect everything from airline flights to food imports. May says a second referendum on leaving the EU is out of the question but that is looking increasingly likely as the other options lead up a dead-end street. Brexit matters for us because London’s the financial capital of the world and the bridgehead into Europe for many Indian companies. For India, a second referendum that keeps Britain in the EU would be the best option.

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