Chronicle of an election foretold

It is a contest where the outcome is predetermined.

We all know that by the time President Pranab Mukherjee demits office on July 24, BJP’s hand-picked Ram Nath Kovind would be ready to move into the majestic Rashtrapati Bhavan by securing an estimated two-thirds majority in the electoral college. And barring minor variations depending on how the ruling party manages Kovind’s ongoing campaign, the Opposition’s Meira Kumar faces imminent defeat.

The BJP along with its NDA constituents has approximately 48.6 per cent of the votes in the electoral college that will elect the next President. In addition to that, it now has the Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United), both factions of the AIADMK, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, YSR Congress, Pattali Makkal Katchi and six independent MPs in the Rajya Sabha. In his countrywide campaign, Kovind also hopes to get hitherto hostile voters, such as six TMC MLAs in Tripura besides a host of unaffiliated electors, on his side. The BJP thus expects to mop up over 65 per cent of the pool of votes at the final count.

The truth is, the much-celebrated process of electing India’s first citizen is as symbolic as his position as the Head of State. The President’s locus vis-à-vis State power was tenuous to begin with; the Constitution makers relegating him/her to the status of “a ceremonial device of seal”. And with the passage of time, the processes leading up to installing new inhabitants in this ceremonial office have become so heavily politicised that the expectation of statesmanship is unrealistic if not entirely irrational. Elections resemble veritable slugfests mainly anchored by the party which heads the government. The choice and election of the candidate are appropriately tailored to suit the political requirements of the government of the day.

So, the Congress in 2007 made a display of commitment to women’s empowerment by dusting Pratibha Devisingh Patil out of the woodwork, a choice that made even the most committed feminists gasp in wonder. In 2012, the reasoning behind the Congress picking the diehard partyman Mukherjee was based on the calculation at the time that 2014 may throw up a hung Parliament. Similarly, the BJP in 2017 is catering to a larger political constituency with Kovind’s candidature.

The ruling party’s move to field this non-controversial, low-profile dalit from Uttar Pradesh aims to address political concerns arising out of a strong dalit upsurge across Gujarat and UP, where a militant Bhim Army threatens to shatter the party’s outreach to the community. The candidature of Kovind, who is a Kori, the third-largest dalit community in UP after Jatavs and Pasis, simultaneously sends a powerful political signal at a time when Mayawati has been considerably weakened.

These choices reflect different aims but a common thread is their lack of a profile outside the political party they represented. Of the different candidates who have been picked over the years, very few have matched the stature that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru stressed on as a prerequisite for the job. In his view, India’s first citizen was thus characterised: “We did not give him any real power but we have made his position one of authority and dignity. The Constitution wants to create neither a real executive nor a mere figurehead, but a head that neither reigns nor governs; it wants to create a great figurehead...”

Barring APJ Abdul Kalam, whom even the reluctant Congress in Opposition was forced to support, very few residents of the Rashtrapati Bhavan in recent decades qualify to be what Nehru termed as “great figurehead”.

Referring to Patil as “The Gandhis’ Girl”, The Economist , in 2007, summed up the BJP’s disdain for the choice: “The BJP considered Mrs Patil, 72, a stooge of the Gandhi family, Congress’s hereditary chiefs.”

And while the media has been congratulatory about the ruling party’s strategy behind the present choice, the truth is that Candidate Kovind is more political than statesmanlike.

The announcement of this largely unknown party loyalist’s candidature followed a similar scramble for background information as Patil. For those of us covering the BJP, it brought back memories of press conferences that Kovind would address as party spokesperson. The few who attended these briefings inevitably failed to convince our editors about the newsworthiness of what was said for want of recognition of who had said it — “Kovind who?”

Thus, a largely disinterested nation is going to witness the spectacle of an election on July 17 and the subsequent counting of votes on July 20. Barring the relief that inevitably accompanies routine continuum in high offices as reflective of a functional democracy, the whole business hardly inspires pride and celebration. All we are left certain of is that the shadow of Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, who signed the Emergency proclamation, looms larger than those in the league of Rajendra Prasad and S Radhakrishnan, who had the stature to defy even an icon like Nehru.