It is the season of new books on Modi and the BJP. Amidst this tsunami, the size of Nalin Mehta’s tome may look intimidating. But as the narrative gathers pace, one finds it is neither a hagiographical “Modi-Shah Nama ‘‘ nor a Modi bashing trope.
Far from being a Khaki knicker wearing Sanghi, Mehta hails from a syncretic family lineage which he explains at some length in the introduction. What sets apart his work from others is a politically agnostic and non-judgemental approach. His stated objective was not to determine if “what the BJP stands for is right or wrong for India”. Nor was it to decide whether Hindu nationalism in a Hindu-majority democracy is good or bad. But, it was to examine “how the shift in BJP’s political fortunes occurred, what changed, what it started doing differently, and the strategies that powered this change”.
This was an ambitious project based on extensive research and analytics going beyond stereotypes and folklore. Mehta collaborated with data scientist Rishabh Srivastav to decipher insights from historical archives as well as contemporary narratives. The result is impressive both in terms of intellectual rigour and depth of analysis. It is as much a thesis of political science as a commentary of a beat journalist. It’s a tough balancing act that he has achieved through 800 odd pages.
The real teeth
One of the interesting parts of the book is a study of changing patterns of BJP’s discourse using a digital tool, called the NARADA Index, developed by Mehta and Srivastava.
It reveals that contrary to popular perception Mandir features way down in BJP’s communication far below development (Vikas) and other topics such as Farmers, Terrorism, Defence, Kashmir, Women and Youth. Thus, Mehta explains later “Hindutva” is not even half the BJP’s story. It is like the proverbial “Haathi Ka Daant” (Elephant’s teeth). The real teeth come from its social welfare schemes, digital reach, and last mile “booth management”.
In another chapter, Mehta quotes a BJP ideologue who told him that many of the myths and misconceptions surrounding the Bharatiya Janata Party come from “professional saffron watchers in academia who bank on press clippings as primary source material”. This was in the context of the general assumption about BJP’s excessive dependence on the RSS cadre network. Mehta dispels this notion conclusively with facts and numbers.
“While the Sangh cadres have always been sympathetic to the BJP they were never BJP’s own cadres… (BJP) does not control them”, he asserts.
In the Modi period of 2014-20, BJP expanded its grassroots organisation that dwarfs that of the RSS. The party remains tied to the RSS for ideological reasons but it is not quite so dependent on it to mobilise votes. In size it surpasses the Chinese Communist Party - even after applying multiple discounting factors to the figures claimed by the party. How Modi and Shah have achieved this phenomenal growth by building upon the advances of previous decades using digital technologies and “revamped internal management practises” makes for fascinating reading.
Decoding ideology
BJP’s economic thinking has been a subject of derision and condescension by the left. Mehta has spent considerable time to understand its underlying ideology. Popular expectation was that Modi would be “a reformist leader, pro-business and right wing”. But, he turned out to be very different - following a hybrid model somewhere in-between capitalism and socialism, which Vinay Sahasrabuddhe called a form of ‘mixed economy’ - that is neither Adam Smith nor Karl Marx.
While politicians attributed BJP’s electoral resilience to its “propaganda machinery’ - it was by deploying a social welfare net that Modi was able to cushion the shocks of demonetisation and the pandemic. Mehta cites studies on public opinion about the economy and jobs at various points in time to validate his inferences. On demonetisation too, he traces the historical thinking on the subject among Indian politicians at large, not just the Jan Sangh, to argue that it may not have been a knee-jerk decision by Modi as many thought.
The book decodes BJP’s attempt at cultural integration of the North East (the “Eight Goddesses”) with a differentiated strategy and its Southern game plan going beyond Karnataka. However, even more revealing is Mehta’s analysis of how BJP under Modi has mobilised women voters. Some journalists have facetiously called Modi the unlikeliest “sex symbol”. But, in the absence of serious research, gender scholars have not figured out BJP’s nuanced approach towards women conflating the nation with the universal idea of motherhood. Mehta finds this akin to the global third wave of feminism - in which one can embrace goals of feminism without being ‘feminists’. In their reluctance to engage with gender and spirituality, BJP’s critics have missed the woods for the trees, as it were.
In this intellectual discourse Nalin Mehta has not shied away or glossed over the usual critiques on BJP’s position on caste and religion, the influence of RSS and its views on education. In conclusion, Mehta submits that whether one supports the BJP or opposes it, it is vital to understand how it transformed India’s political and social landscape. It is a seminal work written sans bias. It has to be similarly read with an open mind to have more informed debates on the “new BJP”.
(Sandip Ghose is a business leader and a prolific commentator on current affairs)