A study conducted by the Raman Research Institute (RRI), Bengaluru, has shown that India will surpass the US in terms of the number of annual scientific publications in 2029.
According to the study, while China, the ‘giant in scientific publications’, will remain at the top, the US will lose its second rank to Indonesia from this year (2024). India will have to wait for another 5 years to better the US, the statistical analysis done by Dipak Patra of the Soft Condensed Matter Group, RRI, says.
The study analysed scientific publications of 50 countries between 1996 and 2020, and investigated how the disparity in the number of publications varies with time, and when it will go away. It has determined that from 2046, all countries excluding China will contribute equally in terms of scientific publications.
The study uses statistical tools such as entropy (a measure of randomness and therefore, unpredictability, in a data set) and linear regression analysis (relationship between two variables). “Based on the regression analysis, it is estimated that three potential countries such as Indonesia, India and Iran may take the ranks ahead of the US around the years 2024, 2029 and 2041 respectively,” the study says.
The findings of the study have been published in a yet to be peer reviewed paper. “It is found that entropy mostly increases linearly with time implying the constant involvement of the countries in the growth of science and the increasing contribution of lagging countries,” the paper says.
The entropy continues to “decay significantly” after the year 2017 as the year-wise publication of China has been surging since then. Because China “has become a large giant in science publications”, the study excluded China from its scope.
By computing entropy between the US and other countries, the research assessed the stability of the current rank of the US against other prominent countries. “Three potential countries such as Indonesia, India and Iran may contribute much more to the growth of science than the US around the years 2024, 2029 and 2041, respectively,” it says.
The study makes two caveats. First, it points out that any prediction based on linear regression analysis “strongly depends on the current pace of growth” and may not be warranted if countries change their policies towards research and development. Second, it stresses that the investigation is only on the number of scientific publications and has nothing to say about the quality of the publications. Quality is generally assessed using metrics such as citations or the ‘impact factor’, neither of which is safeguarded as they can be manipulated.
“The qualitative assessment is a major issue in the understanding of the actual growth of science as some researchers across the world publish substandard and fraudulent works to secure funds for research and uphold their academic position in the current “publish or perish” environment,” it notes.
According to Scopus (a multidisciplinary abstract and citation database), India, with 1,91,590 publications, ranked 4th in terms of number of science publications in 2020, after China (7,44,042), the US (6,24,554) and the UK (1,98,500). As per a classification done by Scimago Journal and Country Rank, India ranked was No 3 in 2023 with 3,06,647 publications, after China (1,043,131) and the US (6,24,554). (The two classifications, however, are not strictly comparable.)