Coal India may miss the revised target of 440 million tonne (mt) of production growth this fiscal. On the contrary, having recorded a production of 292 mt till third quarter of 2011-12 – approximately 9 mt short of the corresponding period in the previous fiscal – the coal major is now up against the challenge to level last year's production of 431 mt.
Analysts, however, suggest that if the company can maintain the production growth rate as in December, there is slender possibility to post a marginal growth in 2011-12. CIL failed to record any production growth in 2010-11.
CIL posted a production of 43 mt in December 2011, up by 2 mt from the same period in 2010. As things stand now, the company has to produce nearly 139 mt in the January-March 2011 to level the tally with previous fiscal.
The most ambitious estimates suggest that CIL may be able to level last year's production provided it springs up a surprise as in March 2011 when production crossed 50 mt nearly 8-10 mt higher than its monthly peak productions during the rest of the previous fiscal.
“As it appears, 440 mt is far from achievable. However, if CIL can maintain the daily production rate as in December, there is a possibility that the company may end up crossing the last year's production marginally,” an analyst with a equity research firm told Business Line.
Meanwhile a higher production in fourth quarter, even if it comes through, is unlikely to leave a marked improvement on availability of coal. Historically, CIL records higher production growth in the second half of the fiscal and a large part of the incremental production is added into the pit head stock.