Reliance Industries is expected to report a 3.3 per cent annual rise in net profit in the June quarter and 11.4 per cent rise in revenue driven by its consumer facing businesses, while its dominant oil and refining business will exert a downward pressure on its performance.
Analysts have estimated net profit of the conglomerate at ₹16,543 crore and revenue at over ₹2.3 lakh crore. On a sequential basis net profit would have declined 12.7 per cent and the revenue by around 2 per cent. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is estimated at ₹39,685 crore.
Sustained growth in Jio Platforms and Reliance Retail will be offset by weak performance in the oil and chemicals vertical, which contributes nearly 60 per cent to consolidated revenue.
On a standalone basis RIL’s EBITDA is seen falling 15 per cent sequentially on weaker refining margins, Kotak Institutional Equities said. In E&P, it expected about 4 per cent sequential decline in EBIT on marginally lower realisation and production.
RIL will report in first quarter results for FY25 on July 19.
Weak refining
The oils-to-chemicals EBITDA is seen declining 23 per cent sequentially according to Nomura Securities, “impacted by a sharp decline in refining margins to $8.5/bbl compared to $11.7/bbl in the March quarter.” This would have been partly offset by a recovery in petchem spreads.
Refining throughput has been estimated at 17.1 million tonnes per annum by Prabhudas Lilladher, which said petchem profitability will decline sequentially. “Refining margins are also expected to decline due to a fall in Singapore GRM.
Both Brent crude and Dubai crude increased 2-4 per cent sequentially in the June quarter. Refining margins saw a complex trend, with Singapore GRMs declining sharply by 53 per cent on the quarter.
Jio
With a sustained performance in its fibre-to-the-home and wireless segments, Reliance Jio is expected to have ended Q1 of FY25 with a monthly average revenue per user of ₹182.7, a modest increase of 1 per cent sequentially, according to Nomura.
The company has added around 9.5 million subscribers during the quarter and this along with a decent blended ARPU would have resulted in a low single digit rise in EBITDA sequentially. Nomura has estimated Jio’s EBITDA to have risen 4 per cent to ₹14,200 crore. It has ended the quarter with around 491 million subscribers.
Margin is seen expanding 30 basis points and net profit at ₹5,400 crore, a rise of 2 per cent.
Retail
Despite the pressure on discretionary spending and the heatwave across the country that kept people indoors, Reliance Retail is estimated to see a 15 per cent annual rise in its revenue in the June quarter and EBITDA is expected to have risen 17 per cent, according to Nomura.
Margins are seen at a modestly healthy 7.2 per cent, with more stores being opened and operating leverage.
Rival retailer Avenue Supermarts reported better-than-expected results on decent same store sales growth and though Reliance Retail revenue per square feet is lower than DMart, analysts expect like-for-like growth to be strong.