Even as India’s monthly crude oil imports from Russia were flat in October 2024, shipments of the flagship grade Urals rose as refinery maintenance in the erstwhile Soviet Union spared more barrels of the medium sour grade for exports.

According to energy intelligence firm Vortexa, India’s crude oil imports from Russia were largely flat on a monthly and annual basis at 1.45 million barrels per day (mb/d) in October 2024. 

On the other hand, Ural imports by India rose for the second consecutive month in October growing by 10 per cent y-o-y to 1.45 mb/d.

Ural shipments fell in July to roughly 1.36 mb/d from the June 2024 high of 1.56 mb/d. The cargoes declined further in August to around 1.24 mb/d before rising to 1.44 mb/d in September.

In the current calendar year, Ural imports from Russia have averaged at 1.34 mb/d during the first 10 months, compared to 1.46 mb/d during the same period in 2023.

“India’s imports of Russian Urals are up nearly 10 per cent y-o-y based on our latest figures. Higher import volumes are driven by higher availability of Urals exports due to Russian refinery maintenance,” Vortexa’s Head of APAC Analysis, Serena Huang, told businessline.

Overall, India’s crude oil imports during October 2024 fell by 8 per cent m-o-m and around 6 per cent y-o-y to 4.31 mb/d.

Crude imports

“India’s crude imports in October might have been lower partially due to higher imports in September. We expect imports this month (November 2024) to rebound, especially in lieu of seasonally stronger domestic demand driven by the festive season in India this quarter,” Huang said.

Asked about the impact of the fresh escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel on imports, she explained that initial concerns of Straits of Hormuz blockage or attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure might have driven refiners to consider buying more crude upfront.

“However, the concerns quickly dissipated, and the market has since normalised, with geopolitical risk premiums falling sharply,” Huang added.

The share of Russia in India’s total crude oil imports rose to 39.56 per cent last month (provisionally) from 38.19 per cent in September 2024, while the share of Middle Eastern suppliers fell to 44.85 per cent from 45.86 per cent.

During September, the cumulative share of Middle Eastern suppliers—Iraq, Saudi Arabia, The UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait—rose to around 45.86 per cent of India’s total crude oil imports of 4.703 mb/d), which was the highest since April.

“Higher Russian and South American crude imports in October 2024 versus last year, and lower overall imports in October 2024 versus last month,” said Huang when asked about the decline in share of Middle Eastern suppliers.

India’s crude oil imports from the US fell for the second consecutive month during October to 148,902 barrels per day (b/d) compared to 216,391 b/d in September and 369,476 b/d in August 2024.

“The US crude arbs (arbitrage) to Asia narrowed after June, which makes it less attractive for Indian refiners to import US crude. Ample Middle East and Russian supplies have kept Indian refiners well supplied,” Huang pointed out.

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