The three-phased Assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which took place after a decade, have concluded. However, the latest data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) reveals that out of 90 Assembly constituencies, 51 saw a decrease in voter turnout compared with the 2014 assembly elections.
Only 20 constituencies registered an increase in voter turnout. Additionally, 19 constituencies were newly delimited following the bifurcation of the State into Union Territory like Shri Mata Vaishno Devi, Udhampur East and Lal Chowk, which recorded an overall turnout of 80.45 per cent, 77.68 per cent and 34.1 per cent, respectively in this election.
The three phases of the J&K election recorded a voter turnout of 61.4 per cent, 57.3 per cent and 69.6 per cent, respectively. The ECI has not updated the final voter turnout for the Union Territory.
Among the 51 Assembly constituencies that saw a dip in voter turnout in comparison to 2014, Budgam recorded the steepest decline, with turnout dropping from 66.3 per cent in 2014 to 52.3 per cent in 2024. This was followed by Uri, which fell from 82.8 per cent in 2014 to 69.9 per cent in 2024, and Chrar, where turnout decreased from 82.4 per cent in 2014 to 70.3 per cent in 2024.
Meanwhile, among the 20 Assembly constituencies that saw the highest increase in voter turnout, Sopore topped the list, rising from 30.8 per cent in 2014 to 45.3 per cent in 2024. Baramulla saw an increase from 39.7 per cent in 2014 to 53.9 per cent in 2024, and Pulwama’s turnout rose from 38.1 per cent in 2014 to 50.8 per cent in 2024.
Out of the 51 constituencies that experienced a dip in voter turnout, 26 are located in the Kashmir region, while 25 are in the Jammu region.
The ECI reported that this election in J&K was significant due to the absence of violent incidents during the voting process. According to data from the Rajya Sabha, overall militant attacks have declined from 153 in 2019 to 41 in 2023.
The data from Lok Dhaba show that in the 1962 elections, the J&K registered a 40.3 per cent voter turnout, which gradually increased to 67.2 per cent in 1977 and further to 74.9 per cent in 1987. However, voter turnout sharply declined to 43.7 per cent in 2002, before rising again to 65.5 per cent in the 2014 elections.
Boycott politics
Rekha Chowdhary, former Professor of Political Science at the University of Jammu, explained, “This trend for staying away from elections for the whole of Kashmir began in 1989 when elections were boycotted due to separatist movements, and it persisted until 2002, when electoral credibility improved. Every subsequent election saw an improvement in the voter turnout.”
In the 2024 assembly election, Habba Kadal, Khanyar and Chanapora had the lowest voter turnout at 19.8 per cent, 26.1 per cent and 29.5 per cent, respectively, while Inderwal, Marh and Padder-Nagseni recorded the highest voter turnout, with 82.2 per cent, 81.5 per cent and 80.7 per cent each.
Chowdhary explained, “There has been more than one pattern regarding low voter turnout in the Kashmir region; while North Kashmir since 2002 has been witnessing higher voter turnout, Central Kashmir has consistently registered lower voter turnout. Central Kashmir, in the past, has been heavily impacted by boycott politics and separatist movements, contributing to the lower voter turnout in many areas.”
Gull Mohammad Wani, former Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Kashmir, said, “Factors such as the termination of government employees, the delimitation of constituencies, deciding the postings of officers, and other political shifts have deepened this problem.”
Wani remarked that there is a need for confidence-building measures and social contract to ensure that the people of J&K actively participate in India’s nation-building process.