The polling for the 18th Lok Sabha election is finally ending, and most large media houses will now turn their attention to ‘exit polls’. But, how accurate are these exit polls? An analysis of the exit polls in the last two LS elections, shows they were not very accurate.

Exit polls are released when the last day of polling ends, as mandated by the Election Commission of India (ECI), to prevent influencing voters’ decisions. The reliability of exit polls depends on several factors, including sample size, the amount of data collected, the design and structure of the questionnaire, and the methodology employed to analyse the data.

The detailed guidelines for regulating exit polls are provided under Article 324 of the Constitution. These regulations aim to prevent the influence of exit polls on voter behavior, a concern that first emerged in January, 1998.

2019 exit polls

In the 2019 LS election, most exit polls were inaccurate, except for the India Today poll, which was fairly close to the winning margin. India Today-Axis My India predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), would win between 339-365 seats, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win between 77-108 seats, and other parties were expected to secure between 69-95 seats.

News 18-IPSOS forecasted 336 seats for NDA, 82 for UPA, and 124 for others. NDTV’s Poll of Polls, an aggregate of all the exit polls, predicted 302 seats for NDA, and ABP-Nielsen predicted 267 seats for NDA. However, the actual election results showed that the NDA won 352 seats, the UPA secured 91 seats, and other parties obtained 100 seats.

2014 exit polls

In the 2014 LS election, the predictions of exit polls were way off the mark. The NDA won a thumping 335 seats, and the UPA won a paltry 59 seats. However, none of the exit polls could foresee a large win for the NDA alliance or the total routing of UPA.

India TV C-Voter predicted that the NDA would win 289 seats and the UPA 101 seats, while India Today-Cicero predicted that the NDA would get in between 261 to 283 seats.

In both the 2014 and 2019 LS elections, media agencies accurately predicted that the NDA would emerge victorious, but the exact number of seats was far from reality.

The accuracy of exit polls can also be scrutinised by examining how polling agencies forecasted the results for the NDA in the 2019 LS election in some major states. For instance, NDTV’s Poll of Polls, the average of all the polls, predicted that the NDA would win around 49 seats in Uttar Pradesh, but the actual number of seats won by the NDA was 64. Similarly, Times Now VMR predicted that the NDA would win 11 seats in West Bengal, but the NDA secured 18 seats. News 18-IPSOS forecasted that the NDA would win around 14 to 16 seats in Tamil Nadu; however, the NDA won only one seat.

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