David Cameron, former Prime Minister of Great Britain, on Thursday said that there is a "80 per cent" chance that the country would leave the European Union on the basis of an “agreed deal’’. However, it may prefer to have a "soft Brexit" by staying close to the European market.
"Up to now, there is around 80 per cent chance that Britain will leave the European Union on the basis of an agreed deal and 20 per cent possibility of dropping the deal," Cameron said at the annual general meeting of Indian Chamber of Commerce here today.
According to him, under the Brexit negotiations, there are essentially two possibilities - either to stay close to the European market and keep some of its rules intact and reduce the sovereignty or to be totally separate by making own rules.
"It is really a trade-off between economic benefit and the seemed political independence," he said.
Talking about the need to leave the European Union, he said there have been a series of changes in the organisation which has now turned out to be more of a “political union’’."There have been treaties after treaties, change after change and this became more of a political union," he said.
Speaking on the impact of Brexit on the economy, he said, "It depends on what sort of Brexit is. If it is a Brexit where it remains allied to a single market or somewhere, where we have constant arrangements so that there isn't friction in border, I don't think the impact will be huge."
However, a 'harder Brexit' will create more friction, he added.
India growing faster
Talking about the growth potential of India, Cameron said that the country provides opportunities and is growing faster than any larger economy. "I hope India will continue to open up; there is a growing pressure to break trade barriers," he said.
India, he said, should remain focused on the “possibilities’' and determine its policies accordingly. The country should focus on infrastructure and skill development.
Protectionism
There was a growing move towards protectionism and isolationism on the premise that free trade was unfair, Cameron said.
"It is considered that free trade is unfair....and that is why we are facing these damaging tariffs of steel and alumina," he said.
Criticising US president Donald Trump's view on trade deficit, he said, "The fundamental flaw in Trump's thinking is that he thinks having trade surplus with everyone is good and trade deficit with everyone is bad. But if everyone is in surplus then who will have deficit?"