As polling dates are drawing near in Assam, the two major poll planks —development over the past ten years of the ruling Congress and its coalition partner Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and corruption during the Congress rule of the opposition parties — have overshadowed most other issues in the State. The polling is scheduled for April 4 and April 11. Altogether, 981 candidates are in fray — with 896 men and only 85 women.
The polls this time have evoked interest not only among the 1.81-crore electorate but also beyond the boundaries of the State primarily on two counts. First, for the first time after the Emergency an incumbent party is seeking mandate for a third consecutive term in Assam.
Secondly, for a State where since 1991 all elections have taken place in the shadow of insurgency, the polls this time are being held in a relatively peaceful situation with all major insurgent outfits, barring a faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom and a faction of the National Democratic Front of Boroland, engaged in peace talks with the Centre.
The Mr Tarun Gogoi-led Congress-BPF coalition Government pursued the mantra that “development cannot wait for peace” and claimed it turned around the economy, changed the mindset of the people and consequently helped improve law and order and industrial climate. Promising to continue the same mantra, the ruling Congress has rolled out a long list of developmental works, backed up with statistics of development indices, initiated over the past ten years of its rule to woo the voters.
In 2001, the Congress won 71 of the total 126 seats and formed the Government on its own. However, in 2006 its numbers reduced to 53, and the party managed to form a coalition Government with the support of 11 BPF legislators. For the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the polls this time have become crucial as the party has been drubbed not only in the past two assembly polls (the party won 20 in 2001 and 24 in 2006) but also the two Lok Sabha polls and panchayat and local body polls over the past ten years.
What Congress claims
The regional party tried to push through its proposal for a “grand alliance” of all Opposition parties, which was rejected by the two left parties — Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Communist Party of India, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, disgruntled ticket aspirants and their followers accused both AGP and the BJP of reaching “secret understanding” in some seats and fielding light-weight candidates.
It was the perfume mogul, Mr Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF which prevented the Congress from securing a majority in the 2006 polls by eroding the traditional Congress vote bank among immigrant settlers. This time, however, there were indications that both the Congress and the AIUDF may agree for an after-poll alliance if the ruling combination fell short of the magic number of 64 seats this time.
The AIUDF won 10 seats in 2006 in its debut electoral performance and won one of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the State in 2009. The Chief Minister, Mr Tarun Gogoi, and the ruling Congress in its poll manifesto and its leaders in their election speeches claimed that Assam had witnessed a remarkable turnaround in the last decade from 2001, when it had taken the reigns of the State after the defeat of the AGP.
The Congress has been trying to impress the voters by running a campaign that in 2001 the State's finances were stressed, salaries of Government employees could not be paid regularly, law and order was precarious, and development had come to a grinding halt during the last five years of AGP rule. The party claims that over the past ten years the per-person income has increased from Rs 10,718 to Rs 22,081. The State gross domestic product has grown at 8 per cent, against 2.1 per cent when it came to power.
The award of the 11th Finance Commission when AGP ruled the State and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance Government (NDA) was in power at the Centre was Rs 13,280 crore. Against this, the award of the 13th Finance Commission (2010-2015) has gone up to Rs 57,832 crore. The Congress has been trying to convince the voters that all such gains would be lost if the AGP returns.
Opposition decries
The AGP and the BJP, however, have embarked on a campaign to puncture holes in the Congress' claims by comparing development indicators of Assam with those of the developed States, and by alleging that there has been massive corruption in the implementation of Central schemes and projects and public distribution system during the past ten years of the Congress-led Government. They alleged that a scam to the tune of Rs 1,000 crore had occurred in the Dima Hasao Autonomus Council (the erstwhile North Cachar Hills Autonomus Council) during the Congress rule at Dispur. Both the Opposition parties have promised in their manifestos a strong anti-corruption legislation. The AGP also claims that the Congress Government could reap the benefit of getting more Central assistance because of the change in the funding pattern of Central schemes from earlier 75:25 to 90:10 done at the initiative of the regional party.
The BJP, seeking to consolidate on its electoral gains of 2006 assembly polls and 2009 Lok Sabha polls it made at the cost of the AGP, is going all out to increase its numbers in the assembly, and dreams of becoming the key player in the formation of the next Government. The BJP has been showcasing the East-West Corridor national highway project, creation of the Ministry for the Development of North-Eastern Region and the Look-East initiative as major development initiatives of the Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee-headed NDA Government for the development of Assam and other North-Eastern states.
Hopes
The party is trying to woo the voters with the campaign that Assam lagged far behind during the Congress rule and development initiatives have slowed down or suffered a set-back during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government at the Centre. It claimed the Congress was facing ‘double anti-incumbency' because of 2G scam, Commonwealth Games scam, Adarsh scam and so on of the UPA Government at the centre and the scams of the Mr Tarun Gogoi-led Congress coalition Government in the State.
The Congress is also pinning its hopes on distribution of freebies like blankets, medicated mosquito nets, bi-cycles, free textbooks, computers to school students, etc. Even as the AGP and BJP were critical of these freebies, the AGP has promised rice at Rs 2 a kg and free health care to students up to the university level and the BJP has promised rice at Rs 3 a kg to poor families in their bid to woo the voters.
Though the AGP and the BJP have been claiming that there has been strong anti-incumbency sentiment and a wave against the Congress because of alleged scams and rampant corruption, failure of the Opposition to unite on principles and a common agenda seem to have placed the ruling combination in an advantageous position for the time being.