India is expected to overtake US as second largest coal consumer in 2024, according to BP World Energy Outlook 2030.
Nearly 93 per cent of the net growth in demand to 2030 will come just from India and China. The combined share of global coal consumption in these two Asian countries would rise from 57 per cent in 2011 to 65 per cent in 2030, BP said.
“The US will not be increasingly dependent on energy imports, with energy set to reinvigorate its economy. And China and India are expected to need a lot more imports to keep growing,” said Bob Dudley, Chief Executive of BP Group.
However, the BP outlook points out that India’s coal demand growth slows down more gradually. It has come down to 3.6 per cent every year during 2011-2030 from 6.5 per cent a year in 2000-10. This is because energy efficiency gains partially offset rising energy demand for industrial and infrastructure expansion.
The similar trend is also noticed for China. Coal demand in the world’s fastest growing economy decelerates rapidly from nine per cent a year in 2000-10 to 3.5 per cent every year this decade and 0.4 per cent each year in 2020-30. This is due to shift to less coal-intensive economic activities and by energy improvements.
Interestingly, coal consumption for electricity generation has seen a slide. The growth has reduced from 3.6 per cent a year in 2000-10 to 2.4 per cent in 2011-20 and would further dip to 0.4 per cent after 2020.
As a result of the reduction for power generation, coal’s share in fuels used for generating electricity declines from 44 per cent in 2020 and down to 39 per cent in 2030. This is because gas, nuclear and renewable are gaining their shares.
BP’s Outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase at an average of 1.6 per cent a year to 2030. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of two per cent a year to 2020 and then by only 1.3 per cent a year to 2030.
“Of these, 93 per cent of this growth will come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. By 2030, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 61 per cent higher than in 2011 whereas use in the OECD will have grown by only six per cent, and actually to have fallen in per capita terms,” BP said.