In 2004, there were around 370 million Indians below the poverty line (37 per cent of one billion). Now there are about 385 million (32 per cent of 1.21 billion). So while poverty has declined in percentage terms, it has increased in absolute terms.
Agreeing with Planning Commission member Dr Abhijit Sen's estimates that poverty had come down to 32 per cent, the Commission's Deputy Chairman, Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, said that “It is a good estimate, though it is not the Plan panel's view yet”.
“Once the second National Sample Survey (for 2011-12) becomes available by 2013, we will really know whether the efforts to make the Eleventh Plan more inclusive have paid off,” he said.
Recently, Dr Sen estimated a decline in poverty from 37.2 per cent in 2004-05 to 32 per cent in 2009-10.
Estimates of poverty made by the Plan panel are important as grains to be provided under the proposed Food Security law will be based on these.
Admitting that inflation was “not in a comfortable range”, Mr Ahluwalia said he was optimistic about the 9-9.5 per cent growth target during the Twelfth Plan. “It is tough, not impossible,' he said.
On the draft approach paper to the Twelfth Plan, he said it may take at least a month to be ready. “There are key areas of concern and the Prime Minister wants inputs from the ministries concerned before it is finalised.”
Mr Ahluwalia was addressing newspersons ahead of the full Planning Commission meeting here on Thursday.
The meeting will flag key issues. “Once we get a broad mandate, a concrete direction to the Twelfth Plan document will be given to make it more inclusive and sustainable,” he said.
On agriculture, the Plan panel Deputy Chairman said he was for rationalising of water pricing, but only after taking the view of the states. He also favoured expansion of the Rashtriya Kisan Vikas Yojana in the Twelfth Plan.