A low-pressure area has sprung up over the Bay of Bengal on Monday, which India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected to become more marked over the next few days.To the other side of the peninsula, an upper air cyclonic circulation parked over Kerala has moved west overnight to enter the Arabian Sea.
PENISULAR TROUGH
The IMD traced it to over the Lakshadweep Islands on Monday evening. Importantly, a trough from the ‘low' in the Bay lay extended to the circulation centre in the Arabian Sea.
This would go to make the southern peninsular region especially vulnerable to bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall over the next two days. Meanwhile, Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Navy has put the low-pressure system under watch for signs of intensification. But it did not see significant churn until Tuesday, though surrounding environment tend to favour development with low wind-shear (sudden changes in wind speeds with height) values and reasonably warm sea waters.
WINDS LAGGING
But surface winds are clearly lagging, the JTWC said, preventing any sudden intensification of the system. An IMD forecast valid until Thursday said that fairly widespread rainfall or thundershowers may lash Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Scattered rains have been forecast for the rest of peninsular India. Isolated thundershowers are likely over east and north-east India and east Gujarat.