Globally, the average temperature between September and December needs to drop by at least 0.30°C for 2024 to not become the warmest year on record, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has said.
“The average anomaly for the remaining months of this year would need to drop by at least 0.30°C for 2024 if it should not be warmer than 2023. This has never happened in the entire ERA5 dataset, making it increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record,” said C3S.
This comes on the heels of the world going through its joint warmest August this year, while Boreal Summer (June-August) was the hottest on record.
Average temperature highest
“August 2024 was the joint-warmest August globally (together with August 2023), with an average surface air temperature of 16.82°C, 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average for August,” said C3S, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU.
August 2024 was 1.51°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 13th month in a period of 14 months during which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the European weather agency said.
“The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (September 2023 – August 2024) is the highest on record for any 12-month period, at 0.76°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average,” said C3S.
These values are identical to those recorded for the previous two 12-month periods, ending in June and July 2024. The year-to-date (January–August 2024) global-average temperature anomaly is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.23°C warmer than the same period in 2023.
String of records
According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): “During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record. This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record.”
She said the temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer would only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet “unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
The average sea surface temperature (SST) for August 2024 was 20.91°C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.07°C below August 2023.
“The equatorial Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a developing La Niña, but SSTs across the oceans remained unusually high over many regions,” said the European weather agency.
As regards India, C3S said the Indian subcontinent was hit by monsoon rains and Cyclone Asna.
Summer woes
The global-average temperature for boreal summer (June–August) 2024 was the highest on record at 0.69°C above the 1991-2020 average for these three months, surpassing the previous record from June–August 2023 (0.66°C).