The monsoon seems to have stumbled on an expected bump, the second such since the delayed onset, seriously hampering its progress.
It has totted up a deficit of 50 per cent during the week ending June 13, on top of the 36 per cent it had returned during its first week.
The overall deficit as on date is 42 per cent.
ANOTHER WEEK
It would be at least another week until things can hopefully be reversed; and that too provided latest northwest Pacific typhoon ‘Guchol’ behaves.
This is the third time during this short season that the monsoon is being dictated terms by ‘away-cyclones’ – two in northwest Pacific and one in south Indian Ocean.
‘Guchol’ is forecast to intensify another round by Sunday, but latest assessment also says that it may start weakening the very next day.
This might leave monsoon a window of opportunity to get its act together; this is exactly what India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects will happen.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting too sees possibility of a conventional low-pressure area spinning up over northwest Bay of Bengal.
RAIN DRIVER
All things remaining same, this ‘low’ should be able to drive the monsoon into the sub-baked and parched Andhra Pradesh-Orissa region.
It is not yet known how far the ‘low’ would penetrate the land. One or two forecasts saw a rain head moving west over Andhra Pradesh into central India.
Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon failed to consolidate on the little progress it managed to achieve on Thursday after emerging from a week-long deadlock.
This seemed to confirm the second lull phase it had driven itself into with typhoon ‘Guchol’ calling the shots in the northwest Pacific.
BIG PUSH AWAITED
The IMD said conditions would become favourable for further advance of monsoon into central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu over the next four days.
Rains may manage to filter into parts of interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Bay of Bengal and some parts of Andhra Pradesh also during this phase.
The next push into east India – West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh – is expected to happen over the subsequent three days only. >vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in