There is a 50 per cent chance of 2024 being the warmest year on record globally and there is a 100 per cent chance of 2024 being among the top 5 warmest years, says the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In a related development, rain-bearing La Nina, which could have brought much-needed rains to India, is getting delayed with 3 of 7 models saying it could now emerge in September, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said in an update on Tuesday.

The view is being supported by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center which said La Nina has a 65 per cent chance of developing in September and even more later on during the year. 

Indian monsoon in rough weather

These findings are crucial for India, particularly for the south-west monsoon, which has run into rough weather after setting in two days early on May 30 this year.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD),  rainfall during the monsoon, as of June 24, is 18 per cent deficient with north-western (-56) and central parts (-22) bearing the brunt. Both these regions are crucial for kharif crops, particularly paddy, oilseeds, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and coarse cereals.

NOAA climate and weather experts said during a briefing on monthly climate updates that the inference of 2024 also being warm, after record warm temperatures in 2023, comes from the US national weather agency findings that the March-May period of 2024  witnessed the warmest (+1.29°C) global land and ocean temperatures. 

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Global land temperatures (+1.92°C) were the second warmest for the period, while global ocean temperatures (+1.00°C) were the warmest on record.

24% of India under drought

The NOAA experts said global land and ocean temperatures (+1.32°C) were the warmest for the January-May period. The US began maintaining records 175 years ago and the findings are based on these data.

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an arm of NOAA, said over longer time scales (12 to 72 months), dryness intensified and expanded in south-west Asia, expanded from northern India to Thailand, and continued across western China to Mongolia. 

“Asia experienced unusually warm temperatures for the last several years, with the 5 time periods from October-May through June-May ranking second warmest,” it said, adding that it resulted in areas under drought expanding.

Though a tad lower than in April, 24 per cent of India -northern, eastern and south-western parts, reeled under drought at the end of May, NCEI said. 

No La Nina guarantee

Meanwhile, BoM said climate models suggested that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool for at least the next two months.  The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.

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“The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is at La Nina Watch due to early signs that an event may form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year. A La Nina Watch does not guarantee La Nina development, only that there is about an equal chance of either ENSO neutral or a La Nina developing,” it said. 

On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the latest weekly value close to zero.  

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