It is a 60:40 split on whether it will be normal or below normal monsoon this year. That’s based on 10 models provided by different agencies across the world.
A normal monsoon is defined by the Indian Meteorological Department as anything which is above 96 per cent of the long-term average rainfall in the season. Below normal would be anything between 90 to 95 per cent of the long-term average.
There is a one in ten chance of a drought happening, said Mr Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet.
Skymet is a company that provides weather information and forecasts. He was speaking on the sidelines of a conference on Monsoon 2012 sponsored by his company.
Normal rainfall
He said that as things stand now, the rainfall in June and July may be normal. But there is a risk that the El Nino effect will kick in during August/September.
He said that east and north-east may be most affected parts of the country. North-western areas (Delhi/Rajasthan/Punjab) would also be affected.
Softer agri prices
Mr G. Chandrashekhar, Associate Editor, The Hindu Business Line , said that he expected softer prices in agricultural commodities in September on the back of a rebound in agricultural production worldwide.
The risk factor for the Indian economy was the weak rupee which would make imports of edible oil and pulses costlier.
Spatial, temporal forecasts
Calling for spatial and temporal forecasts of monsoon that would be available over a period of 10 weeks, Mr Chandrashekhar said this would help the farmers de-risk their exposure.
Expressing concern but without wanting to sound alarmist, he said that a mid or late season drought would affect farmers more because the planting and sowing of crops would have already been done. He urged policy makers to ‘drought proof’ the economy by expanding irrigation schemes.