The low pressure system in east-central Bay of Bengal has overnight intensified into being well-marked and is on course to undergo another round of intensification into a depression.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday traced the system to over north and adjoining east-central Bay.
LESSER ROOM
These coordinates, which posits the system close to the land, may not give it the room to ramp up as a tropical cyclone.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre gave only a ‘medium-level' probability of this happening, despite the presence of other favourable factors.
For instance, the wind shear (sudden change of wind speeds with height that kills storm building process) values continue to be very low.
Sea-surface temperatures are above the threshold at 29 to 30 deg Celsius.
In the final analysis, proximity to land features could be the deciding factor that militates against formation of a tropical cyclone in the Bay at this point.
WESTERLY TROUGH
There is also the forecast possibility of a westerly trough arriving and dipping into Bay of Bengal to scoop up the system and drag it to the east-northeast.
Still, the word is not yet out, according to an expert meteorologist tracking Bay cyclones.
Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation hovering over southeast Arabian Sea has invited the attention of meteorologists.
This is where a US-based forecasting model has been suggesting the possibility of formation of a tropical storm by the month-end.
HEAVY WEATHER
An IMD weather warning said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and the coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa on Wednesday and Thursday.
A short term forecast valid until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Nagaland Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
It would be fairly widespread over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, the coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
RAINS FOR SOUTH
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka while it would be isolated over the remaining parts of east and peninsular India.
An extended outlook valid until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over south peninsular India.