But for elections to the five States, the Union Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, could have read out his Budget by this time. Maybe, the Centre was fortunate enough to have its Budget presentation delayed, as it has got some extra time to tackle any exigency or situation that could arise, particularly with regard to agriculture.

Ever since the United Progressive Alliance came to power in 2004, agriculture has been one of its focus areas.

Every year, we hear the Finance Minister say something is being done or will be done in agriculture. This year, the Budget will be presented at a time when at least two agencies abroad have forecast a not-too rosy outlook on the monsoon.

The agencies in Europe and Japan have said that monsoon could face failure, though temperatures may be lower. This is not good news for the North Block as it gets ready with the Budget for the next fiscal.

Views are almost unanimous that agriculture needs focus.

The call is now to improve production through better yield. In fact, the oft-repeated comment on Indian agriculture is that farmers should be encouraged to produce more through higher yield. It is a scenario that has been true mostly with soyabean farmers. Cotton farmers reaped such a benefit in 2010-11, though the same cannot be said this season that ends in September. In fact, this year's price for cotton has been such a let down for farmers that the International Cotton Advisory Committee sees cotton acreage decreasing next season.

Monsoon forecast

The Centre could have its hands full in the likelihood of a monsoon failure. Already, many parts of the country are witnessing a prolonged dry period with 26 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions getting deficient, scanty or no rain. In fact, since the advent of North-East monsoon, weather has been playing truant in some regions.

A scenario of deficient rainfall or drought is one the Manmohan Singh Government has to tackle with its full might since 68 per cent or 136 million hectares of agricultural land in the country is rainfed. The primary focus of this year's Budget will be to prepare the country for any such eventuality. A monsoon failure could prove to be a double whammy for the Government since inflation is inherent in such an eventuality. In the last Budget, the Finance Minister allocated Rs 300 crore to develop pulses in 60,000 villages under rainfed conditions. Such focus will have to continue, perhaps with a higher allocation, this year.

A fallout of the prolonged dry season since the fourth quarter of last year has been lower oilseeds production, particularly that of rapeseed/mustard. This will lead to higher vegetable oils import this season. Vegetable oils import has emerged as one of the key components in which precious foreign exchange goes.

Last year, Rs 300 crore was allocated to bring 60,000 hectares under oil palm cultivation. The Finance Minister may have to come up with more this Budget too to achieve the Government's objective of producing three lakh tonnes of palm oil in five years time.

Irrigation

In the previous Budgets, the Centre had focussed on irrigation, particularly drip irrigation. While renewing its focus on irrigation, the Government would well do to give a thrust to micro irrigation that could be economical and workable for small and marginal farmers. This also could come in handy to focus on organic agriculture.

Besides, the Finance Minister can make a start by coming out with policy or even incentive to improve ground water levels. Reports of depleting ground water sources are scary and it is time that the Government swung into action on this.

In fact, Mr Mukherjee could focus on strengthening sources such as lakes and ponds nearly agricultural farms so that farmers could spend less on getting irrigation. Already, the Centre has raised the prices of non-urea fertilisers and subsidy on this count is on the downswing. However, the Centre can look at other ways and means that improve soil fertility and nutrients and its overall health. Logistics and transport are the major hurdle in a farmer getting his produce to the consumer. Often, problems in logistics have resulted in farmer selling his product at a throw away prices. As a result, the desired objective of better remuneration the grower remains a dream.

Foreign investment

In last year's Budget, the Centre had come up with initiatives to promote foreign investment in cold chains and increase their capacity. The initiative needs to continue this year too. But if something needs better thrust this year, then it should be transport and logistics in getting the farmers produce to the end consumer. Such a thrust will cut the number of middlemen in the food chain and ensure better payment for the farmer.

Storages

The Centre can also think of ways to promote farmers' initiative in developing storages and such an initiative can be promoted on an individual basis or a cooperative. The Maharashtra example of providing subsidy to onion farmers to construct their own storage is one that is worth following.

There are many such things to focus on but it is important to follow up the progress that has been achieved in making such allocations. Will the Finance Minister be bold enough to read out a report on the outcome of his initiative on agriculture during the Budge presentation? Or will the Economic Survey at least record the progress?

Monitoring

The Centre needs to regularly monitor the progress of its agricultural policy and its implementation. Results of this have to be evaluated. Some sort of transparency has to be brought in the implementation of process and accountability of the outcome is critical. An annual monitoring and evaluation report should be published. Without such a process, outlays could run the risk of being misused. The Finance Minister would also do well if he considers ways and means to cut production costs for growers. The initiative could come in the form of low interest for crop loans and lower taxes on agricultural inputs. In turn, the consumers can also gain and that, in turn, can help the Government control inflation.

Besides, Mr Mukherjee should surely come out with a policy to promote research and development aggressively.

He can, perhaps, announce some tax relief for corporates that come forward to spend or sponsor such efforts in agriculture.

>mrsubramani@thehindu.co.in

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