Mr Anilbhai B. Patel owns 12 acres in Dhoraji village of Gujarat's Rajkot district. Last year, he had grown cotton on 10 acres, dividing the rest for pulses and groundnut. Despite cotton prices plunging nearly 40 per cent since April this year, Mr Patel says he will still sow cotton this year.

Mr Narsing Rao of Warangal in Andhra Pradesh too has similar plans. Several thousand farmers are shifting from oilseeds, maize and paddy to the natural fibre throughout cotton-growing States in the country.

Industry sources have put the consumption of seeds at 4.20 crore packets (of 450 gm each) against 3.70 crore packets last year. On an average, farmers sow 1.5 packets an acre.

PRICE SCENARIO

An encouraging pricing scenario last year made the farmersstick to cotton, while others turned to it to join the party.

Though lower now, cotton prices rallied for most part of last year.

This, however, is not to be. Delay in rains has impacted sowings in the South and central zones, particularly in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh that are in the top league of cotton production.

Maharashtra tops the list with 1.45 crore, followed by Andhra Pradesh with 90 lakhs and Gujarat 60 lakh packets.

Karnataka has seen a jump of 40-50 per cent to 20 lakh packets this season, with maize and soya farmers shifting loyalties to cotton.

Farmers in Andhra Pradesh, who had already consumed 70 lakh packets, made beelines in front of seed shops when reports of probable shortage spread like wildfire. Despatch of seeds was delayed with the Government inordinately deferring its decision on pricing.

GOOD NEWS

Delay in monsoon, however, is not going to take farmers away from cotton.

“If monsoon is delayed by another week or so, whatever sown would go waste. They have to buy seeds again. But, the good news is that farmers can wait a few more weeks as cotton is a long duration crop,” Mr P. Satish Kumar, President of Andhra Pradesh Seedsmen Association, said.

For now, their fate hangs in balance.

They can wait but poor rains could lead to attacks of pests that generally thrive in this low rain, cloudy weather.

Three weeks after its half-hearted arrival, monsoon was deficient by 37 per cent as of now in Andhra Pradesh.

Rainfall stood at 52 per cent as against the normal figure of 83 mm and 97 mm last year in Andhra Pradesh.

Reports from Maharashtra also indicated bleak picture.

“Last year, we had to sow thrice in some areas because of excess rainfall and floods. This year too, we may have to go for one more sowing due to lack of rains.”

Prospects

“Farmers tend to get more from cotton compared with other crops, including pulses,” said Mr Anand A. Poppat, Vice-President, Saurashtra Ginners Association.

“Sowing has begun in some areas after they got some rain,” said Mr Poppat. “In some places, farmers have sown seeds expecting rain. But if monsoon is delayed or rain doesn't come on time, then seeds could burn out,” he said. Mr Shyamjibhai Raiyani, an agro input merchant in Rajkot, says going by purchase of inputs, the area under cotton in Gujarat could increase by 15 per cent.

“Cotton is a very competitive cash crop. Farmers get a good per hectare return from the white gold,” says Mr B.V. Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors Association of India.

Though prices have dropped sharply, they are still higher than the same time last year. For example, Shankar-6 is quoted around Rs 40,000 for a candy of 356 kg now against about Rs 30,000 during the same time last year.

(With inputs from Anil Urs, Bangalore and M.R. Subramani, Chennai)

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