Deals to export at least five lakh tonnes of soyameal from the new soyabean crop have been signed so far with expectations of production matching last year’s record 115 lakh tonnes boosting hopes.
“We expect to sign soyameal export deals close to 10 lakh tonnes by the middle of September,” said Davish Jain, Managing Director of Prestige Group and former President of Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade.
According to Rajesh Agrawal, spokesman of Soyabean Processors Association of India, Iran has signed deals to buy at least one lakh tonnes.
Japan has reported signed to buy a similar amount of soyameal, while the rest is head to the Far-East.
Most of the deals have been done at $515 a tonne f.o.b. This is lower than the average $571 a tonne realised for soyameal exports in July and $619 in June.
During April-July period of the current fiscal, 5.16 lakh tonnes of soyameal have been exported against 8.05 lakh tonnes during the same period a year ago.
Last fiscal, 34.39 lakh tonnes of soyameal were exported against 38.29 lakh tonnes during 2011-12.
Oilmeal exports
According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, exports of oilmeals dropped to 48.46 lakh tonnes last fiscal from 55.99 lakh tonnes the previous year.
During the current fiscal, oilmeals are lower on slower economic growth world-wide.
In the case of soyameal, prices above $600 a tonne have also proved a dampener.
“We can touch 50 lakh tonnes soyameal exports this year,” said Jain.
Demand
“Demand for soyameal is good this year. The price trend is in line with the one prevailing in the global market,” said Agrawal.
“On the Chicago Board of Trade, soyameal for delivery this month was quoted at $516.10 a tonne.
“India has two advantages in exporting soyameal to the Far-East and West Asia.
“One, freight charges are lower from India due to the shorter distance.
“Two, India can ship in smaller lots compared with the US or other South American origins which insist on bulk exports.
“The current trend is bullish for soyameal going by reports from the US and South America,” said Jain.
Late plantings of soyabean in the US could result in lower yield.
Also, the prevailing hot weather in the US could affect production despite mild showers over the next couple of days offering a little respite.
There is also a threat of frost to soyabean, thus keeping the oilseeds complex firm.
“There may not be additional shipments coming out of the US,” said a trader, pointing to weather forecasts for US Midwest.
“Normally, November-March is a period that supports our oilmeals exports to the maximum.
“The rupee’s fall will offer additional advantage,” said B.V. Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors Association of India.
The bright prospect for oilmeal exports has driven up soyabean prices to Rs 3,650 a tonne current from Rs 3,425 a month ago.
They are, however, lower than the average price of Rs 4,381 in August last year when prices surged on dry weather in the US affecting the crop.