The north eastern quadrant of the country may receive heavy to very heavy rainfall along with the West Coast during the first 15 days of July, US forecasters said.
The geography covered is likely to include rain-battered Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and parts of Gujarat.
BELOW-NORMAL
North-West India (Rajasthan) and the peninsula would most likely witness below normal rains during the period.
There is a likelihood of an interaction of monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal with incoming westerlies from the opposite side i.e., North-West India.
Such interactions normally result in heavy to very heavy rains as opposing winds awash with moisture meet along windward flanks of the Himalayas.
The India Met Department said on Tuesday that a western disturbance from across the Pakistan border was waiting to chug into North-West India.
WET HILLS, COAST
US agencies said that overall, monsoon could be below normal except on a few days until mid-July but there was no escaping heavy rains bearing down on Himalayan hills and along the West Coast. A Met department forecast saw increase in rainfall activity over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh from July 5 to 9.
Rain or thundershowers would occur at many places over remaining parts of the country outside interior peninsula where it may be at a few places.
A warning valid for the next three days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would lash west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
HEAVY RAIN
Heavy rainfall has also been forecast east Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday.
A same forecast is valid for east Rajasthan, Gujarat region, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during the next three days.
A low-pressure area that had curled up from the Bay of Bengal towards south-east Uttar Pradesh had reverted back and was located over north-east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining north Chhattisgarh.
This may have spared the Himalayan foothills in east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar of expected very heavy showers, which would now migrate to Madhya Pradesh and head north into Uttarakhand/Himachal Pradesh.