The window for intensification of a depression over central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has been extended by another day.
Normally, extension of the timeline should signal waning confidence in the expected outcome but a couple of other models are giving hints to the contrary.
India Met Department said in the morning update that the depression in the Bay could concentrate into a deep depression (just below cyclone status) by tomorrow.
But wind field projections by the Met seem to signal a weakening of the storm by Saturday and its likely death by Sunday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says that the storm could die out even earlier.
The Global Forecast System of US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says a weakening depression will cross the coast near Chennai in Tamil Nadu.
Incoming circulation
The sole exception to this scenario is the forecast by the US Naval Observatory which sees a minimal cyclone hitting the area between Kakinada and Krishan districts of Andhra Pradesh by Saturday/Sunday.
Meanwhile, India Met has cast its eyes firmly on a low-pressure area originating in the Gulf of Thailand, 600 km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
It is expected to cross into Andaman Sea possibly as a deep depression and hunker down the open Bay waters eyeing the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast.
The European Centre has refused to acknowledge the development despite the US Naval Observatory having located the system already in the Gulf of Thailand.
Rain, snow
Incoming western disturbances into northwest India are expected to precipitate rain or snow in the hilly areas and fog in the plains.
Heavy rain or snow fall has been forecast for Jammu and Kashmir over the next two days as back-to-back disturbances approach the region.
But they would also lead to a slight uptick in night temperatures since associated clouds would prevent ground radiation from escaping into atmosphere.