Timely and excess precipitation in the key sugarcane growing areas of Maharashtra has raised the prospect of higher yield of the crop.
This is likely to boost sugar output this year to last year’s level of around 25 million tonnes. This is despite drought affecting the planted area in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where the acreage is lower than last year.
The South-West Monsoon, so far, has brought six per cent excess rainfall since its onset in June. In Maharashtra, the cane acreage this year is around 5.70 lakh hectares (lh), 40 per cent lower than 9.40 lh in the previous year.
Dry spell and drought in key cane growing areas prompted the farmers to plant less area.
In Karnataka, the cane acreage is marginally lower at 3.48 lh against last year’s 3.65 lh, while in Uttar Pradesh, the acreage is higher at 25.17 lh against last year’s 22.77 lh. Overall, cane acreage across the country is likely to be lower by three to six per cent compared with last year.
The broad consensus in the industry and the Government is that sugar output for the 2013-14 season starting October will be in excess of domestic consumption estimated at 23 million tonnes.
Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar recently said that higher sugarcane yield this year will help boost sugar output to that of last year’s level.
The National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories Ltd expects the 2013-14 output at around 24.5 million tonnes, said Managing Director, Vinay Kumar.
“Following the good monsoon, there is a sharp hike in sugar output projections from Maharashtra to around 7.3 million tonnes against the earlier estimate of 6 million tonnes,” Kumar said. The total output in 2012-13 is expected to exceed 25 million tonnes.
In its initial estimates in July, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) based on the satellite images of cane area in June had pegged the country’s sugar output in the year starting October 2013 at 23.7 million tonnes, about five per cent lower than current year’s 25 million tonnes on lower cane acreage.
ISMA is expected to come out with revised production estimates on Monday based on the latest satellite images of the cane crop.
An output of 25 million tonnes for 2013-14 would help break the sugar-production cycle. Normally, three years of surplus sugar production is followed by a decline in output.
Sugar production has been in excess of domestic consumption in the past three years.
Higher output would also mean higher exports from the country. The industry is expected to produce more raw sugar for exports as the demand for such variety is higher in West Asia and other neighbouring countries including Sri Lanka.
Exports of raw sugar may commence once the crushing starts in the new season.
The opening sugar balance for the next season is expected to be around 80 lakh tonnes, about 20 lakh tonnes more than the normal opening balance that the Government would like to have for the first three months of the crushing season starting October.
As a result of surplus sugar availability, sugar prices are likely to be bearish in the near-term compounding the woes for millers, who are already reeling under the impact of high cane prices.
>vishwanath.kulkarni@thehindu.co.in
(This is the fifth part of the series on this year’s kharif crops)