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The South-West monsoon rains are expected to hit the Kerala coast anytime now. But, a forecast update from Japanese researchers appears to pour cold water on its prospects.
Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Climate fears that abnormal warming of the East Indian Ocean would precipitate the ‘negative Indian Ocean Dipole.’ This results from an erratic warming pattern in the Indian Ocean wherein the East (off Indonesia) gets warmed up significantly higher than the West (off East Africa). It affects the supply of ocean moisture, an essential ingredient in the formation of monsoon clouds, headed towards India.
ERRATIC WARMING
A good part gets prematurely rained out in the ocean itself because warm waters fuel convection (evaporation and cloud-building).
“A negative Indian Ocean Dipole mode will develop soon and reach its peak in early autumn,” the Japanese agency said.
“Because of this, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal; a weak La Nina condition in the equatorial Pacific might reduce the negative impact to some extent.”
ADVERSE IMPACT
If this were to prove true, it could have an impact on the performance of the agricultural sector as well as on other sectors through the effect on rural incomes. Agriculture accounts for 17 to 20 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product and is largely rain-fed. So a fall in agriculture has a ripple effect on the economy.
The monsoon accounts for 80 per cent of rainfall. A delay by a few days in the onset of rain can be telling, since about half of the farm output comes from crops sown during the June-September rainy season.
It is also key to determining agricultural output, inflation, consumer spending and overall economic growth. Below normal rainfall could spell disaster making food more expensive, aggravating power and water shortage, and hitting industrial production. A normal monsoon can positively impact the stock markets as it would boost the general sentiment.
A good monsoon increases rural purchasing power. Most fast moving consumer goods companies depend on the rural market for growth in sales.
> vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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