The monsoon has failed to advance beyond the northern limit reached spanning Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu for a second day on Friday.
This is the second time that the seasonal rains have got bogged down, including the nine-day stalemate over Sri Lanka from May 27.
OFFSHORE TROUGH
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the offshore trough extending from coastal Karnataka to Kerala was more or less in tact on Friday.
This indicates that the larger rain system is active over places where it has already made the onset.
These include Lakshadweep, Kerala, parts of coastal Karnataka, south Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu.
But the usual heavy rain regime seems to have more or less exited the coastal Karnataka-Konkan belt. This indicates some weakening of the monsoon system.
The heavy rains are now located over the Andaman Sea, after a cyclonic circulation evolved in the region.
LULL PHASE
According to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the monsoon is likely to go into a lull for the next three to four days.
It is expected to resume and scale up to some strength before hitting peninsular India from mid-week next week.
The European forecaster expects both the peninsular seas to throw up helpful cyclonic circulations and rev up the monsoon towards the end of the week.
Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the Bay of Bengal has spun up a circulation over north Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay.
HEAVY RAINS
It is likely to move in an east-northeast direction and head towards Myanmar-Bangladesh, as per initial forecasts available.
A weather warning from the IMD said that heavy rains are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands for the next two days.
It has forecast only normal rains or thundershowers at one or two places over peninsular India as well as east and adjoining central India.