The South-West monsoon is most likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department said in its initial forecast on Friday.

It has, however, not given any region-wise prognosis, which many have sought in the light of other recent forecasts suggesting deficient rains in particular in the southern States.

“I have very good news for the farmers as well as others. Monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal this year,” said S. Jaipal Reddy, Minister for Science and Technology, announcing IMD’s predictions.

Quantitatively, the average rainfall is expected to be 98 per cent of the normal long period average (LPA) of 89 cm during the four-month season starting June 1.

LPA is the average of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole from 1951 to 2000. Last year, the monsoon was below normal at 92 per cent of LPA (81.9 cm), though the forecast was 99 per cent. The first official forecast by IMD does not talk of the onset of monsoon; nor does it estimate the spatial and temporal rain distribution for the season.

“We are not giving any region-wise prediction at this point in time,” said L. S. Rathore, Director-General, IMD.

However, the north interior parts of peninsular India, that is, parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka that are already reeling under drought could see some relief where rains could be better than last year.

“But we will have to wait till June for a clearer picture to emerge,” Rathore said.

Satisfactory, overall

Interestingly, on Friday morning, ahead of IMD forecast, Food Minister K. V. Thomas had said, “the overall monsoon is expected to be satisfactory, except that in the southern tip of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it may be delayed or less than normal”.

Asked to comment on Thomas’ observations, Rathore said: “Ours is the official version and the monsoon this year is most likely to be normal”.

The IMD is expected to gather data till May-end before making a region-wise forecast in June and will announce the onset date for monsoon on May 15.

The South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof), at its recent summit in Kathmandu, had observed that most of mainland India will see normal rains this year.

However, the Sascof forecast had also pointed out that areas in South India, including entire Kerala, most of Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka would see deficient rains.

Large parts of peninsular India have been hit by a dry spell, with water levels in many reservoirs reaching their lowest. This may affect the summer planting of crops such as rice, the prices of which (especially finer varieties) have flared up in the southern States.

A good monsoon is crucial for agriculture, which accounts for about 15 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), as 70 per cent of the farmland are rain dependent.

It would also contribute to overall economic growth, easing concerns on food inflation, which has reversed in trend recently. A softer inflationary regime may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates further.

Grain output

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) on Tuesday predicted a GDP growth of 6.4 for the current financial year, over last year’s 5 per cent. The Council pegged farm growth at 3.5 per cent against the previous year’s 1.8 per cent.

Despite drought in parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka last year, the country’s foodgrains output touched 254 million tonnes.

As on April 1, food stocks in the Central pool stood at 59.67 million tonnes, including 35.46 mt of rice and 24.20 mt of wheat.

>vishwanath.kulkarni@thehindu.co.in

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