Monsoon readying to withdraw from North-West

The India Met Department has announced that conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the monsoon from parts of northwest India.

The process may begin during the rest of this week to end a roller-coaster ride of the monsoon that has run up a deficit of 11 per cent as on date.

There is not much scope for a drastic change in the deficit situation even while not ignoring the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal and potential rain for parts of peninsular India.

The US Climate Prediction Centre agrees with this view, and sees the rains having already withdrawn from north-west except the western half of Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Punjab. It also suggests that most of the gains from the ‘low’ in the Bay would pan out over peninsular India during the very last week of the month (starting Wednesday next, September 24). Till then, rains or thundershowers are seen lashing parts of the eastern coast covering mainly Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and the adjoining interior.

Meanwhile, other models suggested that the ‘low’ may not cross the peninsular coast but retreat back to the outer seas and chug towards Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal coast.

It would merely leave the field clear for the monsoon to withdraw from central India, especially Madhya Pradesh, in what looks like a process loaded with some intent of haste. Spins away

In this manner, the rains got dragged well into October. Meanwhile, India Met Office said on Wednesday that the ‘low’ in the Bay has already spun away north into the west-central basin off north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha. Heavy rain is forecast for Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and the North-eastern States over the next three days.

Rains will grow in intensity over the north-east from the weekend, indicating the track of the ‘low.’ Thundershowers are forecast for West Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Telangana, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh into early next week.