As the monsoon 2014 prepares to enter the last week, the rain deficit figure stands at 12 per cent with northwest India expectedly ending up the worst hit.
Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, entire Uttar Pradesh, and east Madhya Pradesh are left with considerable rain shortfall.
In peninsular India, Telangana and Marathawada have joined the above list. But contrary to forecasts, the rest of the peninsula has managed to receive normal rainfall up till now.
And it is here that the residual monsoon flows are forecast to serve up one last spell of moderate to heavy rain during the rest of this week.
This would pan out along with the heightened monsoon in east India overseen by a well-marked low-pressure area over north Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal.
A causative ‘low’ prowling in the Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts had intensified during the weekend into being a ‘well-marked low.’
It had behaved in line with forecasts to move north and cross the Odisha coast while retaining much of its new-found intensity.
WET SPELL PREDICTED
The rains are currently walloping parts of Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and almost the entire northeast, a pattern which would hold on for the next three days as well.
Simultaneously, activity is seen building up over peninsular India, with a churn in the atmosphere in the wake of flows getting directed in the well-marked ‘low.’
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, the west coast will once again slip under moderate to heavy rain progressively during this week and into the next.
It showed extreme south peninsula, including south Kerala and adjoining south Tamil Nadu, being targeted for some heavy showers.
This could be the handiwork of a circulation beginning to build off southeast Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka on the trail of the fading of the ‘low’ in northeast India.
These rains could spill over into the first few days of October, according to this forecast.
PACIFIC TYPHOONS
Meanwhile, Typhoon Fung-Wong in the northwest Pacific is forecast to hit Taiwan during the course of the day and later the adjoining southeast coast of China.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a stronger and many-times-more intense typhoon brewing in the same ocean basin later this week and approaching the same coast of China in a menacing fashion.
But forecasts indicate it might just stop short, choosing to bear down instead on upstream South Korea/Japan. The Chinese coast is likely to be spared of a direct hit.
It will be interesting to watch how these storms can impact the unfolding weather over peninsular India, which is forecast to undergo a wet spell almost concurrently as per today’s forecasts.