Monsoon winds head right into Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal

Heavily moisture-laden monsoon winds are now fanning right into Jammu and Kashmir in the extreme north of the country and adjoining north-west India.

Other areas being covered include Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, an India Met Department outlook said, confirming forecasts made by various international weather models.

The low-pressure twins are now active over west Rajasthan to the north and Kutch in Gujarat to the southwest and their performance is being stepped up by passing western disturbances.

The Met had forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, west Rajasthan, east Rajasthan, Punjab, Saurashtra and Kutch for Thursday.

Its outlook was for heavy rainfall over east Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Odisha, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

As for Friday, it has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall for Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and Odisha.

Heavy rain is expected over Rajasthan, east Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Odisha and coastal Karnataka.

By Saturday, the heavy rainfall focus would once again shift back to the east coast with heavy rainfall being forecast for Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

And expectedly so since this would be the time around when a building low-pressure area would go through the motion even while still being at a base out into the sea (Bay of Bengal).

The new ‘low’ will wait until the current feverish activity over extreme north and northwest India lifts and make a delayed entry into Andhra Pradesh coast, south of where it is actually taking shape.

This would take the next couple of days to happen, and the ‘low’ will once again bring heavy rain into central and adjoining north peninsular India (mainly Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha).

But latest forecasts suggest that it will run into a barrage of rampaging westerlies over central India, breaking free as they do subsequent to clearing of air over Rajasthan and Gujarat.

The westerlies might cause the ‘low’ to shift gear and head a little to the north where it is seen parking over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan.

Monsoon watchers are also looking for signs for abatement of sea-based weather activity in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal by mid-week next week when the causative upper level wave would exit the Bay.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation wave is predicted to enter South China Sea/west Pacific to set up clouds and kick off a rainy spell over the Maritime Continent (Indonesia, et al).