Cyclone Nilofar has weakened into a depression, and is wallowing in the northeast Arabian Sea, 480 km southwest of Naliya in Gujarat.
The depression will further weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area during the course of the day and will still be out in the sea.
This would mean that the system could cross coast, if at all, as a rudimentary low-pressure area, a far cry from its beastly self as a very severe cyclone a day ago.
India Met Department said in the morning bulletin that the remnant of Nilofar could at best moderate to heavy rainfall over Kutch and Saurashtra districts until Saturday.
Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over the remaining districts of Saurashtra, north Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan.
Squally wind speeding to between 35- to 45 km/hr and gusting to 55 km/hr may prevail along and off Gujarat coast during the course of the day.
BAY IN ACTION
Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal has got into action, with an easterly wave likely showing up throwing up a possible weather system.
This could grow into a depression, or even a cyclone, according to early forecasts available from varied weather models.
India Met Department projections of the emerging wind field pattern also points to the possibility.
It tends to indicate that a cyclone could spin up southeast of Chennai by November 6.
The Global Environmental Model of the US Navy has also come up with a similar outlook. It sees a minimal cyclone brewing close to Sri Lanka-southeast Tamil Nadu coast.
Proximity to the coast may not give the system sufficient elbowroom to grow beyond point, and could erupt in a ‘straggled’ landfall along the Tamil Nadu coast by November 7.
ANOTHER CYCLONE?
An experimental model cyclone tracker of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System had suspected that a successor to very severe cyclone Hudhud could form in the Bay as early as October 25.
Only, it was thwarted by the Arabian Sea that conjured up its own circulation, which saw the momentum shift away from the Bay.
This circulation in the Arabian would grow on to become very severe cyclone Nilofar.
Now it seems Bay is playing catch up with its own bid. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been signalling this over the last few days.
But it saw what it suspects could be a depression forming over west-central Bay and washing over the Andhra Pradesh coast by November 9.