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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lowered the outlook for a tropical storm developing from the ‘well-marked low-pressure area’ in the south-west Bay of Bengal.
Overnight on Tuesday, it had maintained the outlook for the intensification of the system into a monsoon depression, and had fixed a 12-hour window.
US FORECAST
This was withdrawn in the afternoon bulletin, which said that the rain-generating weather system had moved into west-central Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu.
A concurrent US Naval forecast too had found that the system had a ‘medium’ (two on a scale of three) chance for intensification.
But, proximity to land was a dampener given that an approaching storm structure breaks up on impact. The IMD said that the well-marked ‘low’ will move west-north-west over land and emerge into the Arabian Sea off the coastal Karnataka by Thursday.
MAY INTENSIFY
International models expect the system to re-intensify off coastal Karnataka, move north towards Konkan-Mumbai from where it would start moving away further into north-east Arabian Sea.
In the process, it could intensify another round, but could be stopped on its tracks by an approaching western disturbance from the Pakistan border.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also agrees with the outlook.
It has forecast rain all along the coast right up to Gujarat.
The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated places over Rayalaseema until Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall has been forecast at isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during this period.
HEAVY RAIN
Heavy to very rainfall may lash a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated places over Rayalaseema until Thursday morning.
Heavy rainfall may break out over at isolated places over south interior Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala during this period.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Rayalaseema until Friday morning.
Heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south and north interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
> vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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