The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon for 2012-13.
The forecast may fuel expectations of better agricultural output. However, it would be too early to expect a bumper kharif crop. This is because the prediction is an all-India average for the entire four-month monsoon period.
It does not talk of the onset date for monsoon nor for that matter the spatial and temporal distribution of rains for the season. From a farmer's point of view, the rains matter more during the peak sowing months of July and August.
However, the prediction of normal monsoon for a third consecutive year will have a benign effect on the inflationary expectation in the immediate context.
This is important given the resurgence in food inflation over the past few weeks, reversing an earlier trend of decline during January-March.
The average rainfall is expected to be 99 per cent of the normal long period average (LPA) of 89 cm during the four-month season from June 1 to September 30. LPA is the average of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole from 1951 to 2000.
“This year's monsoon is most likely to be normal with a probability of 47 per cent,” said Mr Vilasrao Deshmukh, Science and Technology Minister, announcing the IMD predictions.
A good monsoon is particularly important for crops such as oilseeds, pulses, cotton and coarse grains that are largely rainfed.
Better-than-normal rains in 2011-12 helped the country increase food output by 3 per cent to an all time record of 252.56 million tonnes, up from 244.78 million tonnes the previous year.
The Government has projected a GDP growth of 7.6 per cent for 2012-13, higher than the 6.9 per cent advance estimate put out by the Central Statistics Office for 2011-12.
The onset date for monsoon is likely to be announced by the IMD in mid-May. Forecast relating to spatial and temporal distribution of the rains will be done in June.
An analysis of five predictors or the long-range forecast indicates a 24 per cent probability for a below-normal rainfall.
But the probability of seasonal rainfall to be deficient or excess is less than 10 per cent, which is relatively low, Mr Deshmukh added.
The IMD's long-range forecast has a margin error of 5 per cent.
“There is no negative impact of the prevailing westerly disturbances on the monsoon forecast,” said Mr L. S. Rathore, Director-General, IMD. The westerly disturbances have caused inclement weather conditions especially in North India.
However, the emergence of weak El Nino conditions cannot be ruled out during the latter part of the monsoon season, said Dr D.S. Pai, Head of Long Range Forecast at the IMD. El Nino is associated with below-normal rains.
“La Nina has ended and we are in a transition period. The probability of re-emergence of La Nina conditions during the monsoon season is very low,” Dr Pai said.
Forecast update in June
IMD will issue an update in June as part of the second stage forecast. Along with it, separate forecast for July and August rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal rainfall (June-September) over the four geographical regions will also be issued.
In the pre-monsoon period this year since March 1, the cumulative rainfall received is 27 per cent lower than the long period average (LPA).
Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 23 have received scanty or deficient rainfall.
The live storage level in 82 major reservoirs is lower compared to that of last year. The current storage level is 28 per cent of the capacity of 153.334 billion cubic metres as against last year's 33 per cent.