Oilseeds production is set to rebound this kharif season but the jury is still out if it can scale higher than the record 219.22 lakh tonnes (lt) achieved during 2010-11.
“Soyabean and groundnut production will be higher this year. But we are not sure if it can touch the high that we saw three years ago,” said Govindlal G. Patel, managing partner of G.G. Patel & Nikhil Research Co. Patel is a renowned crop statistician.
“Going by the acreage, it is clear that we will have a higher crop this kharif,” said B.V. Mehta, Executive Director of the Solvent Extractors Association of India.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, till September 6, oilseeds have been planted on 191.6 lakh hectares (lh) against 117.6 lh during the same period a year ago.
But as in the caseof other kharif crops, excess rain could affect the final output since damage to crops has been reported from some areas of the country.
Soyabean
“The soyabean crop has been damaged in some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra due to excess rainfall. The area under soyabean this year is 122 lh against 107 lh last year,” said Patel.
Soyabean production could be between 115 lakh tonnes (lt) and 120 lt against 107 lt, he said.
“Even if we get one tonne from a hectare, soyabean production should go up by 15 lt. However, if we are to account for the damage, then maybe, we could get an additional 10 lt over last year,” said Mehta.
Though continuous rain from June to August-end had threatened the soyabean crop, sunshine during the last two weeks has raised hopes of a better crop.
Soyabean is the main kharif oilseeds crop accounting for over half the total production with groundnut, sesamum, nigerseed and sunflower making up the rest.
Groundnut
“Groundnut is making a comeback this year after the crop faced problems in the last two years,” said Mehta.
According to Patel, the groundnut crop in Gujarat could be 42 lt this year, though the crop requires another spell of rainfall.
“Prospects for another spell of rainfall are bleak going by forecasts. Those who have irrigation facilities are better off, while others may not be able to take advantage of excellent weather earlier this season,” said Patel.
“The higher area under kharif oilseeds could get translated into 15 lt-20 lt of additional oilseeds,” said Mehta.
The higher production could keep oilseed prices either at current levels or a little lower.
“Over 60 per cent of our vegetable oils need is met through imports. So, prices will tend to tow the global trend,” Patel said, adding that prices could rule around last year’s average.
“Prices could come under pressure because this is also the peak palm oil production period,” said Mehta.
However, with demand for edible oils rising by seven per cent every year, the additional production would go only toward meeting it. “This will keep prices steady,” said Patel.
Imports are expected to be around this season’s level of 105 lt-110 lt. From November to August of the current oil season, about 80 lt of vegetable oils have been imported. “Another 26-30 tonnes could arrive by October, taking the total imports to nearly 100 lt,” said Mehta.
“The new crop will start arriving in November and we could see the arrivals checking imports,” he said.
“Imports will also depend on the rupee exchange rate. Any fall in the rupee will make imports costlier and hence, it will affect shipments,” said Patel.
>subramani.mancombu@thehindu.co.in
(This is the third part of the series on this year’s kharif crop.)