India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mounted a watch for a low-pressure area in the south-east Bay of Bengal.
Given that a ‘low’ is the basic building block of building storm its behaviour will be closely watched for signs of intensification.
PHAILIN SUCCESSOR
Very severe cyclone Phailin had taken shape as a low-pressure area in South China Sea off Thailand, crossed into south-east Bay of Bengal before intensifying many times over.
The diagonal track from south-east Bay until it made landfall over Odisha coast gave it the time and extended stay over warm ocean waters to intensify.
But these are in limited supply to the ‘low’ expectedly developing now, since it will mostly travel along a straight line towards the south Tamil Nadu coast.
It could still intensify a couple of rounds to become a minimal storm (depression) when it reaches the south Tamil Nadu coast by Wednesday (October 23), according to early forecasts.
OPTIONS OPEN
From here, options are open for the storm as it charts its future track of movement. Early consensus from majority of models suggests a west-northwestward track into Kerala-Karnataka coasts.
While at it, the storm may weaken due to interaction with land but once it slips into the Arabian Sea, it might re-intensify and curl up along the coast north to Konkan-Goa.
This track provides for a scenario in which heavy to very heavy rains would lash the south Tamil Nadu coast, interior South Peninsula, Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO
The alternate scenario is for the likely depression to stop on its west-northwestward track with landfall over south Tamil Nadu, and instead move north-north-east along the coast to north Tamil Nadu.
What lends some credence to this is the presence of a patch of ‘very warm pool of water’ along the north Tamil Nadu coast and contiguous south Andhra Pradesh coast.
A storm is known to sniff out the warmest waters within its reach and steer itself from the trodden path towards them.
But on Friday, models surveyed were not very confident about this scenario materialising.