The prolonged dry spell is triggering worries among policy makers in New Delhi, compounded by the delay in the arrival of the South-West monsoon.
The epicentre of this worry has been a contiguous stretch, extending from Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh, western Marathawada, Vidarbha, Telangana and north interior Karnataka, that has seen a prolonged dry spell post-monsoon last year.
This entire belt is the country's key crop area for crops such as soyabean, cotton, groundnut, pulses, coarse grains and even sugarcane.
“The rains are delayed and the earth is really parched. We are hoping for a good spell of rains,” said Dr Ashok Gulati, Chairman, Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP).
“However, I am more worried about the break in rains – about a month later with the likely appearance of El Nino. If El Nino appears, it could spell a disaster for farmers. It is not a panic situation, but we are watching it closely,” Dr Gulati said.
El Nino triggered by warmer conditions in the Pacific Ocean induces drought-like conditions in countries including India.
The prolonged dry spell in the past seven-eight months has also resulted in reduced water storage across various reservoirs in the country. According to the Central Water Commission, the current water storage in the 84 major reservoirs decreased to 32.70 billion cubic metres (BCM), lower than last year's level of 39.84 BCM. However, the current storage is more than the average of last 10 year's storage of 25.28 BCM.
“Although the delay in arrival of monsoon by five days is not a gap, it is still a cause of worry,” said Mr B.V. Mehta, President, Solvent Extractors Association of India.
The prolonged dry spell has hit the early sowing of oilseeds mainly groundnut in Gujarat. The early sown groundnut, mainly done using stored water, accounts for about 30 per cent of the normal crop area. As oilseeds have fetched higher prices last year, Mr Mehta expects the total area to go up by 3-5 per cent this year.
On the possible occurrence of El Nino, Mr Mehta said the prolonged dry spells during monsoons have been predicted “we are keeping our fingers crossed”.